The Pre-Mainnet Valuation Trap That Caught Everyone
Before Monad's network went live on November 24, 2025, guessing its price was pretty normal. Sources say Monad just got $225 million in Series A funding, which puts their value at around $3 billion. The valuation was based on how similar layer-1 networks were priced when they first launched. The team stress-tested token price scenarios across bull and bear markets. Monad's strong funding, tech, and growing community have people talking about how high its token price could go. Coinbase's sale attracted over 85,000 buyers, who purchased tokens worth a total of $269 million.
But the problem was how everyone was thinking about it. These models saw the private value as the lowest the price could go, but it turned out to be the highest. It showed how hopeful investors were back in early 2024. After months of getting ready, MON launched, though the market had changed a lot by then. The Fear Index was at 22, but that number didn't really show how traders felt or what they were doing then. Before the launch, funding rates showed what traders thought would happen, not how well things were actually doing. This made the expected values different from what was really going on in the market for traders. It didn't account for the actual problems of a real launch.
Monad is right now ranked #126 on CoinMarketCap and has a market cap of $230 million. The valuation of $100B, based on all tokens, doesn't line up with what's happening right now in the market. Around 11 billion MON tokens are trading in the market right now. Just looking at a crypto token's market cap doesn't give you the whole picture of its worth or how well it's doing. Models using the total value included tokens that won't be around for years. Neither way really showed how supply and demand worked together when people were actively trading.
Why Comparable Analysis Falls Apart for Monad
When analysts guess where monad prices are going, they usually check out similar things that happened before. Aptos and Sui can be compared because they're both Layer 1 blockchains that are venture capital-backed, use parallel execution, and launched with a lot of hype.
The comparison doesn't really hold up when you look at the basics. First, when something happens really matters. Aptos showed up in October 2022 when the market wasn't doing great. Sui launched in May 2023 as things started to get better. Monad, though, came out in November 2025, when everyone thought the market would be booming. How the price changed in the first three months of each launch had more to do with the market than how good they were. But most models acted like the market was always the same.
Each project used different ways to give out tokens. The Monad airdrop didn't go as planned. A lot of loyal community members didn't get anything, which made people angry and led to a lot of people selling their tokens. Aptos and Sui managed to sidestep typical distribution issues when they launched. Coinbase's choice to loan 160 million MON tokens to market makers led to some unexpected issues that other token launches didn't have.
Third, the ecosystems were different when they launched. Monad started with Uniswap, LayerZero, Wormhole, and native USDC all ready to go from the beginning. Its DeFi TVL went over $245 million in two weeks. Both Aptos and Sui launched with development ecosystems still in their early stages. The relationship between launch momentum and price appreciation remains unclear, as stronger debuts could either drive gains or speed up their incorporation into valuations. Models that use Aptos or Sui can't figure this out because the starting points weren't the same.
Three Variables That Break Traditional Forecasting
Predicting monad price prediction after launch proves challenging given three unique factors and a lack of comparable token releases. First off, there's the token lock-up. There are still around 50 billion MON tokens locked up, which is half of the 100 billion that are out there right now. The team's first big unlock, about 10.7% of all tokens, is coming in November 2026, which is eight months away. The validator rewards are being distributed through March 24, adding 170.21 million tokens (worth $3.68 million) into circulation. Price models using the supply now don't think about the flood of new tokens coming, which will shake things up.
Also, models trying to guess releases are stuck figuring out how much the team and early investors will sell. Arthur Hayes, the BitMEX co-founder, argues MON's valuation stems from hype rather than fundamentals, calling it an overpriced token with inflated expectations. He's warning that its price could drop massively, like by 99%. Whether that worry is valid, it skews regular price predictions.
Then, there's the chance of a buyback. Category Labs said back in January 2026 that it might buy back up to $30 million of its MON tokens from the open market in the first six months of the year, assuming certain conditions are met. The conditions matter here. The token buyback would use around 13% of MON's total market value. If the firm doesn't come through, expect investors to sell off their tokens as they lose faith and get annoyed. Not one common model handles possible supply absorption well.
Lastly, incentives mess with TVL. The Monad Foundation put $15 million toward Aave v3, which makes you wonder if the protocol's TVL shows how much people want to use it, or if they're just chasing the money. A $347 million TVL makes you wonder if this growth is real or just people chasing rewards that will leave once the program is done. This questions every new Layer 1, and it makes income-based price models (monad crypto price along with $2,861 in daily system earnings) super misleading while incentives are in action.
What Aptos and Sui Actually Teach
While the initial launches of Layer 1 networks provide some clues about how new networks might perform, keep in mind that each project can differ quite a bit from what we've seen before. Maybe not as much as you'd think. Aptos started trading around $7, quickly fell to $3 within weeks, and then bounced back to its initial price. Sui's price dipped after it launched, but it slowly bounced back. Both charts don't show Monad's 47% drop from its highest price.
What's the link between these three new tokens? In the initial six months, token release schedules often have a bigger impact on price than the tech behind them. Aptos and Sui saw their biggest price drops either during token unlock events or right before they happened. Things should stay pretty steady for Monad holders soon. Looking back at tokens with similar vesting plans, the team unlock in November 2026 will likely cause big price changes. The way the market is doing then will decide if the price goes up or down. We can't say exactly where the price will go, but we can see what makes it move.
Tech changes affect prices at different times. Monad's 10,000 TPS with 800ms finality, using MonadBFT, really is a step forward. The February MONAD_NINE upgrade lowered EVM memory fees while staying compatible with Ethereum's Fusaka version. That's real progress. Aave v3 is on its way. Chainlink's CCIP tie-in can give the platform access to $5B in wrapped BTC. Again, all real. Most models haven't been able to accurately predict how tech upgrades will change prices over time.
A Price System That Might Actually Hold Up
Instead of trying to guess the exact monad price, analysts should look at what could happen based on changes in supply, such as when more tokens become available or when the company buys some back.
Rather than aiming for a specific price by a certain date, analysts can chart the known supply changes (like validator unlocks, likely buybacks, and the November team unlock) and estimate the pace at which those tokens will hit the market.
How quickly traders sell off tokens after the supply goes up depends on the current market and how unstable it is. Seeing how stablecoin inflows (currently at $397M), protocol income, and DeFi TVL without incentives, the model gives a likely price range instead of a specific target.
Monad coin's CoinMarketCap data shows where the current market liquidity is. For example, with $31M in daily volume, the market can probably handle small unlocks without problems. The 10.7 billion token team unlock in November is very big compared to the current daily volume.
This method won't give you catchy predictions like $0.05 by Q3 that get attention online. But it will show the uncertainty that's hidden in all the current monad price prediction models.
Risk Scenarios Most Analysts Won't Touch
The real danger for MON holders isn't rival tokens like eos crypto or xpin crypto, or tech issues. The turning point is coming in late 2026, when tokens will be released and the rewards programs will end. If the Monad Foundation stops its incentive plans around the same time team tokens start being released, the whole system might see a lot of value leave and insiders selling off their coins. This is a big deal because we know it's coming, but not many people are talking about how these two things together could shake things up.
Another thing to think about is regulation. Zerohash wanting to become a bank and mentioning Monad and USDC on Monad shows they're thinking big. The $225 million Monad token sale might face regulatory problems or approval delays, which could cause compliance issues later. It could have a big impact, even if it's hard to say exactly how likely it is.
Category Labs plans to repurchase $30 million in tokens. After getting listed and working with Chainlink and Aave, the protocol became quite popular. This gives the project some ways to handle any problems that come up, which is more than you can say for most new projects. The Monad Foundation has resources, but they can't last forever. Comparing this to dcr price movements during similar unlock periods shows how critical these timing factors are.
So, here's the truth: trying to guess Monad's price isn't working because people are trying to make precise guesses about something that's hard to predict. The tech behind Monad is solid. More and more developers are getting interested. It looks like this project has real promise. It's tough to guess how new token prices will move since there's not much past info to look at. People who admit that will do better than those who act like it's not a problem. The forecasts are off, not because Monad is bad, but because it's too soon to tell.