CONY: Could Have A Future, But I Would Wait

Summary YieldMax COIN Option Income Strategy ETF has continued to struggle in correlation with the underlying COIN stock. Based upon its strong performance when COIN is doing well, once COIN reverses direction, there's a strong probability that CONY will too. COIN is undervalued, in my opinion, and has been under downward pressure in an uncertain crypto regulatory environment. Once that is resolved, CONY should be the beneficiary of the type of clarity that should jumpstart the crypto market. YieldMax COIN Option Income Strategy ETF ( CONY ) has been frustrating for many investors that have held the high-yield ETF. Its strategy is to write covered calls against Coinbase Global, Inc. ( COIN ), which has underperformed in an uncertain crypto market. The primary purpose is to generate income for the shareholder, with a secondary purpose of having exposure to COIN. Understanding the upside of CONY is unlikely to capture the growth associated with COIN when it returns to an upward growth trajectory. Even so, there have been times in the recent past when CONY has made nice upward moves in conjunction with the price movement of COIN, as seen in the chart below. It has also traded at or above NAV for a prolonged period of time while generating significant income for investors. Seeking Alpha That said, since early October 2025, it has struggled to find support, as it has dropped from approximately $107.00 per share on June 18, 2025 (post-reverse split of 1:10 in early December 2025) to $38.64 on 1-21-2026. Performance from April through November 2025 Above, I mentioned the fund had periods of strong performance while generating strong income for investors. The most prolonged period since its inception was from early April 2025 to early November 2025. During that time, it traded at roughly $61.00 per share ($6.10 pre-split) on April 7 and held onto that level until November 3. The other strong showing was from the same starting date when trading at $61.00 per share, until July 18, when it topped off at approximately $107.00. On a pre-split basis, that was a move from $6.10 to $10.70. As for the reason I'm starting with April, it's because of the impact of President Trump's announcement and implementation of tariffs, which resulted in most stocks plummeting. What's important to me as it relates to CONY is after the negative impact where it dropped to $61.00 per share, it soared afterwards to the above-mentioned $107.00 per share. That suggests, even with the growth limitations generally inherent in synthetic covered call options, it showed an ability to perform beyond expectations... at least for a while. There is also the fact it was able to maintain its share price above NAV until early November. Consequently, I want to point out two things. First, ETFs like CONY can be great for swing traders during certain market conditions. And second, it points to the possibility, and I think probability, that when COIN reverses direction, CONY has an excellent chance of surprising to the upside in regard to share price. CONY, COIN, and Bitcoin Even though COIN is the underlying for CONY, there is no doubt the price movement of Bitcoin has a significant secondary effect on the performance of the ETF via COIN. This is shown in the chart below, with all three moving in correlation with one another, with the couple of exceptions when COIN outperformed Bitcoin for a couple of periods of time, before falling back in correlation with its price movement. Seeking Alpha I think the reason for this is COIN is still considered by the overall market to be a crypto trading firm, even though it has started expanding into the stock market and other competitive areas. So, it appears it could be disproportionately impacted by the price movement of Bitcoin, even though, as the chart shows, it is showing signs of breaking out. Moving forward, I think that is going to happen as the market starts pricing in the addition of new revenue streams, along with how they impact the performance of COIN. It's my belief that COIN is going to return to growth in the not-too-distant future, especially as regulatory concerns are dealt with and how crypto bills are structured. While there's no way of knowing until it happens, it's my conviction that CONY is going to benefit on the growth side, but more importantly, its distribution yields are likely to climb along with modest share price growth. Distribution yields It was inevitable that the distributions yield for CONY was going to drop as the share price dropped in response to the underlying. The most recent distribution per share was announced to be $0.2219, with an ex-dividend date of 1-22-2026 and a payable date of 1-23-2026. That's the lowest distribution since 12-3-2025, although they were very low before that, with most being in single digits from 10-22-2025 to 11-26-2025. YieldMax Website None of this should be surprising to those that understand how covered call ETFs are structured and how they perform when the underlying performs weakly. CONY has been all over the map in regard to the weekly distributions paid out, but when the underlying shows strength, the distributions paid out have been consistently robust. My thought is when Bitcoin and COIN return to an upward growth trajectory, CONY is going to perform solidly. Conclusion Some of my colleagues and peers who have taken a position in CONY since the early days of its inception have done very well with total returns but did get a little tired of watching its share price drop as it has since July 2025. As a result, some of them sold off with decent total returns but were concerned about the timeframe it may take for a sustainable rebound in COIN. The point is, for those that haven't taken a position in CONY, I think waiting until there's confirmation of a sustainable rebound in Bitcoin and COIN before taking a position. I'm not concerned with attempting to market time the lowest price; it would be better to get in at a good price rather than the lowest price once confirmation is in place. I sold my CONY a while ago, and even though I haven't been impressed with its recent performance, based upon past strengths with the underlying is doing well, I am considering taking another position once I'm convinced there is a more favorable environment for the ETF. It seems like it has the potential to surprise on both the share price and distribution yield once that happens, taking into account past performance doesn't guarantee that's how it'll respond in the future. While true, it appears to me the percentages of it performing stronger in the future as COIN rebounds are higher than it underperforming once that happens.