Whale's Insight: Surface Weakness Masks Whale Accumulation In ETH

Summary ETH posts its longest weekly downtrend since 2022, but whale selling has slowed sharply and accumulating addresses are now net buying at lower levels, signaling growing commitment and early signs of bottoming rebound beneath the price weakness. Trump's 15% global tariff increase reignites inflation concerns, while CLARITY Act uncertainty deepens Extreme Fear; Vitalik's strategic ETH sales and miners' BTC liquidations for AI pivots further amplify panic in an already sensitive market. The widely discussed 10am dumps pattern, reportedly linked to Jane Street's ETF arbitrage mechanics, is alleged to have suppressed Bitcoin's price and prevented it from reaching $150k, igniting intense debate over whether institutional players can truly control crypto price discovery. ETH is enduring its longest weekly losing streak since 2022, yet whale behavior quietly shifts to active accumulation at discounted prices. This edition highlights the contrast between surface-level pressure driven by Trump's tariff pivot, regulatory setbacks, the widely discussed 10am dump pattern that has sparked intense debate over whether Jane Street has truly manipulated Bitcoin's price, and underlying smart-money positioning in Ethereum ( ETH-USD ). ETH Drops 6 Straight Weeks, Whales Shift to Active Accumulation Despite ongoing ETH price pressure, on-chain and exchange data reveal layered whale behavior signals: On Binance, average ETH whale sell order size has dropped from 2,250 ETH in early January to 1,350 ETH in recent weeks. The reduced order size indicates a clear slowdown in large-holder selling activity, which has temporarily thinned market depth and lowered the ability to absorb aggressive selling pressure in the short term. Meanwhile, ETH has now recorded its sixth consecutive weekly loss, marking the longest uninterrupted weekly downtrend since the 10-week drawdown from March to June 2022. That earlier bear-market period eventually reached a cycle bottom before price stabilized, while the current streak, though shorter so far, continues to reflect persistent selling pressure and weak momentum on higher timeframes. However, the realized price of ETH-accumulating whale addresses has bent downward for the first time, indicating no significant selling from these holders. Instead, they have been buying additional ETH at lower levels, which has pulled their average cost basis lower. In the region where realized price curves down, balances have surged and realized cap has increased, confirming net accumulation and growing capital commitment even as ETH trades near $2k. Taken together, these signals show whales moving from gradual distribution toward active accumulation, not panic selling. Smart money appears to be building positions aggressively at discounted prices beneath the current surface weakness. Trump's Tariff Pivot Ignites Inflation Fears, Crypto Clarity Collapses Trump's Tariff Shockwave On February 23-24, 2026, President Trump announced an immediate increase of global tariffs to 15%, pivoting to Trade Act Section 122 after a Supreme Court ruling struck down earlier tariff authorities. This sudden policy shift rattled global markets, triggering a broad sell-off. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped, and Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) fell below $65,000, erasing earlier gains. This action introduces renewed inflation fears and complicates the Federal Reserve's potential path to rate cuts, creating a "higher-for-longer" interest rate environment that historically pressures high-beta assets like cryptocurrencies. Regulatory Clarity in Peril Market confidence in a definitive US crypto regulatory framework has largely evaporated. Prediction market odds for the landmark Clarity Act plunged from a recent high of around 82% to roughly half that level within just three days, driven primarily by stalled Senate negotiations over stablecoin rewards and broader legislative gridlock. This sharp reversal has revived concerns about a return to “regulation by enforcement,” driving institutional desks to de-risk. At the same time, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has stayed firmly in Extreme Fear territory throughout February. This ongoing regulatory uncertainty serves as a systemic drag on the market, outweighing other potential technical or on-chain improvements. Key Crypto-Specific Catalysts Amid this macro turmoil, project-specific events have exacerbated the downdraft: Vitalik Buterin did sell 1,869 ETH for about $3.67 million over two days in late February 2026. This formed part of a larger pre-announced plan from late January, when he withdrew and allocated 16,384 ETH to support long-term Ethereum ecosystem initiatives. Although these sales were strategic and transparent, they added short-term market pressure and contributed to roughly a 5% decline in ETH's price during an already fragile period. This shows how extremely sensitive and fearful the current crypto market has become: reactions to the capital flows of key figures or institutions are often excessively amplified, gradually eroding rational market behavior in this environment. Bitdeer, a leading Bitcoin mining company, fully liquidated its self-mined Bitcoin treasury, selling approximately 1,133 BTC for about $62 million, reducing its holdings to zero. The move aims to generate liquidity for AI cloud services expansion and data center land acquisitions. Similarly, in early Feb 2026, Cango miner sold 4,451 BTC for roughly $305 million to bolster its balance sheet and accelerate its pivot to AI infrastructure. More and more miners are shifting toward AI and data center infrastructure, using Bitcoin sales as a key financing strategy to fuel this pivot. Did the 10am Dump Stop Bitcoin from Hitting $150K? Since late 2024, Bitcoin has consistently experienced sharp sell-offs every trading day right around 10 a.m. Eastern Time, a pattern dubbed the “10am dump” by the crypto community. In a viral long-form X post, Justin Bechler argues that this was executed by quantitative trading firm Jane Street. As an Authorized Participant for major Bitcoin spot ETFs like BlackRock’s IBIT ( IBIT ), Jane Street has privileged access to create and redeem ETF shares directly with real Bitcoin. This allows them to arbitrage discrepancies between the ETF’s NAV and the spot market price. The author claims Jane Street leveraged this position by programmatically selling Bitcoin into the open market at 10 a.m., deliberately pushing spot prices lower to accumulate ETF shares at a discount. The post points to Jane Street’s Q4 2025 13F filings showing $790 million in IBIT holdings but suggests these long positions were likely fully hedged or even net short via undisclosed derivatives like put options, short futures, or collar strategies. This masked any true bearish exposure while public disclosures showed bullish holdings. The author estimates that without this daily suppression, Bitcoin’s price would already be at least $150k, far above current levels, highlighting how ETF mechanics may distort the asset’s true scarcity-driven value. Notably, following a February 2026 federal lawsuit from Terraform Labs’ bankruptcy administrator accusing Jane Street of insider trading (tied to the 2022 Terra collapse), the 10am dump pattern abruptly ceased. Bitcoin then staged a strong V-shaped rebound, with the community interpreting this as legal and regulatory pressure forcing Jane Street to halt the alleged algorithm. The thread exploded in popularity, sparking heated debates in crypto circles about institutional arbitrage transparency, ETF structural flaws, and Bitcoin’s suppressed price potential. While some analysts counter that the pattern wasn’t consistent enough to prove systemic manipulation, and others point out that large market makers such as Jane Street have long possessed the technical ability to influence prices across many assets, though intentional manipulation is clearly illegal and not unique to crypto, the narrative has reignited scrutiny over who truly controls Bitcoin’s price discovery. Week Ahead Mar 1 Crypto Expo Europe Mar 3 US ISM Manufacturing PMI Release Mar 5 Employment Situation for February Mar 5 U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for January Next week blends crypto community activity with key US macro data. Crypto Expo Europe may lift sentiment around exchange and Web3 developments. Macro releases including ISM Manufacturing PMI, February Nonfarm Payrolls, and January trade prices will influence inflation views and Fed rate expectations, keeping liquidity-sensitive assets like crypto on edge. Disclaimer: The information provided herein does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice, and should not be treated as such. All content set out below is for informational purposes only. Original Post