U.S. Services PMI Sinks Near Pandemic Lows, Increasing Fed Rate Cuts Odds – Catalyst for $150K Bitcoin?

￰1￱ activity unexpectedly slowed in September, pushing the ISM services PMI to 50 and reinforcing growing odds of near-term Fed rate ￰2￱ macro pivot could help fuel a new leg higher for B itcoin and put a $150K target back on the table. September’s ISM services report showed meaningful weakness across the board, with the Business Activity index falling into contraction at 49.9, and New Orders weakened sharply, showing that service-sector growth is stalling. *US ￰3￱ SERVICES PMI FALLS TO 50 FROM 52; EST. 51.7 *US ISM SERVICES BUSINESS ACTIVITY AT 49.9, LOWEST SINCE 2020 *US ￰4￱ SERVICES PRICES PAID INDEX RISES TO 69.4 VS 69.2 *US ￰5￱ SERVICES NEW ORDERS INDEX FALLS TO 50.4 VS 56 — Bloomberg Breaking News (@Top_Bloomberg) October 3, 2025 Macro Context with PMI, Labor, and the Fed Could Trigger a Bitcoin $150k Rally With ￰6￱ market data also weakening and Core PCE inflation still running at 2.9% , its first such level in 30 years, the odds of Fed rate cuts have ￰7￱ now expect at least two cuts beginning as soon as the October FOMC meeting , with one more possible before the end of ￰8￱ macro backdrop has already helped Bitcoin rally to a 50-day high of $123,841 , gaining over 11% in October’s so-called “Uptober” ￰9￱ change in expectations is a key bullish catalyst for risk assets, including Bitcoin.) to a possible easing bias is part of why analysts are debating a rotation back into risk-on ￰10￱ easing and the prospect of easier financial conditions historically lift risk assets and speculative ￰11￱ macro liquidity and derivatives demand line up, price discovery can accelerate ￰12￱ banks and research desks have turned bullish on BTC’s upside in this ￰13￱ Chartered recently said Bitcoin could reach $135K soon and perhaps hit $200K by ￰14￱ the same time, spot ETF demand, growing options activity tied to ETFs, and a rising share of long-term holders (those who’ve held since the ETF approvals) are shifting market structure away from pure short-term leverage toward more durable ￰15￱ ETFs Post $1.08B in Volume as Bitcoin Open Interest Hits $45.3B Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $1.08 billion in volume over the last four days, showing that institutional inflows remain ￰16￱ the same time, Bitcoin Open Interest just hit an all-time high of $45.3 billion, marking the largest leverage buildup the market has ever seen.

On-chain data shows another bullish shift, with the rising share of long-term holders who have kept their BTC for 18 months to two ￰17￱ to the bullish narrative, there are reports that President Trump is considering new stimulus checks of $1,000–$2,000 funded through tariff ￰18￱ IN: President Trump considers sending US taxpayers up to $2,000 stimulus checks using tariff ￰19￱ — Remarks (@remarks) October 2, 2025 A similar policy in 2021 helped fuel the last major bull run, when Bitcoin rallied from $17,572 to its then-record $69,000. If confirmed, fresh fiscal stimulus would add another powerful liquidity injection into markets already preparing for Fed easing, potentially accelerating Bitcoin’s trajectory toward $150K and ￰20￱ Technicals Flash Green With $120K Breakout and Highest Weekly Close Ever Bitcoin’s structure now mirrors past “price discovery” phases, with strong ETF inflows, record open interest, resilient spot demand, and aggressive futures ￰21￱ argue BTC may be entering Price Discovery Uptrend 3, historically the stage where mega bull runs take shape. #BTC Bitcoin is on the cusp of entering Price Discovery Uptrend 3 $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin ￰0￱ ￰22￱ — Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) October 3, 2025 As long as Bitcoin holds above $120K and the Fed follows through with rate cuts, the setup favors upside ￰23￱ the weekly chart of Bitcoin, the technical picture reveals clear signs of ￰24￱ has successfully held the 20-week moving average as support, which has historically been one of the most reliable levels for sustaining long-term bullish trends.