Trading Spaces recap: Fed’s hawkish cut, crypto’s wobble and where Dentoshi is hunting next

TL;DR Highlights from our most recent Trading Spaces with Dentoshi : The Fed cut rates by 25 bps on Wednesday, Sept 17, 2025 — a widely expected move. Powell’s tone read “not in a sprint to ease,” and the dot plot implies room for more cuts this year, but not a flood. Long-end yields popped after the decision, a classic “hawkish cut” ￰1￱ the 10-year as your macro risk ￰2￱ ripped to fresh records; crypto bounced, then ￰3￱ is not the decoupling we wanted — ￰4￱ crypto, momentum is mixed: majors failed to push through key mid-range levels; breadth in alts is trying (compression + bullish EMA crosses) but needs ￰5￱ on Edge: Fed Rate Cut and the Crypto Reaction ￰0￱ — Kraken (@krakenfx) September 19, 2025 Macro in one chart (and why it matters) The decision: –25 bps to a 4.00%–4.25% target ￰6￱ had it largely priced; the upside surprise (50 bps or ultra-dovish guidance) didn’t ￰7￱ emphasized caution and ￰8￱ now lean toward two additional 25 bps cuts in 2025, but participants are split — classic recipe for ￰9￱ tell: 10-year Treasury up, curve ￰10￱ 10-year yield rising likely signals that the market still has concerns about longer term inflation, which could be a headwind for risk ￰11￱ that 10-year quote on your layout.

meanwhile, stocks at highs (S&P 500, Nasdaq; small caps ripping) underscore that liquidity hopes remain alive — even if bonds are pushing ￰12￱ we’re seeing on the crypto charts Bitcoin (trend-following lens) Mid-range rejection: The level we flagged on prior streams rejected cleanly; no sustained momentum ￰13￱ spot to watch: Confluence of the 4h EMAs + prior swing-low ￰14￱ “reaction zone” for a constructive ￰15￱ there opens a deeper sweep into range-low ￰16￱ (momentum check) ETH attempted a push around the FOMC window, but failed to push above the weekly ￰17￱ structure isn’t broken, just ￰18￱ want either a swift reclaim above the cluster or a tagged retest lower with buyers stepping ￰19￱ breadth: TOTAL3 & “Others” TOTAL3 (crypto market cap ex-BTC & ETH) is boxed between prior ATH ￰20￱ = risk-on for alts; below = ￰21￱ you can’t trade it directly, it’s a vibe check: it confirms whether alt strength is there or not. “ Others ” shows a similar picture: breakouts met the first big supply shelf and ￰22￱ a breakdown (yet) but it’s a battlefield.

Translation: The risk-reward favors patience until we get confirmation (break and hold) or a deeper retest (flush into demand). Setups we walked through We focus on structure + EMAs with simple, falsifiable ￰23￱ leverage needed for these ideas; spot lets you survive ￰24￱ (strength → hesitation): Strong trend signal from bullish EMA crosses, but price is fighting to hold above prior ￰25￱ flip/hold that shelf for continuation, or wait for the cleaner dip into the next demand box. “I just got here” pattern (newer listings): Weeks of slow bleed → base → reclaim EMAs/Fibs → ride to logical ￰26￱ showcased it using PUMP historically, then mapped EIGEN as today’s analogue: prolonged bleed, basing, EMAs turning up, constructive ￰27￱ risk: keep stops below the impulse that kicked off the reclaim, and don’t force ￰28￱ breakouts (alt bucket): A handful of alts show volatility contraction near monthly opens with fresh bullish EMA ￰29￱ steps are in; sustainability is the ￰30￱ the weekend resolves higher, breakout-continuation trades activate; if not, retest-buys lower down often offer better asymmetry.

let's discuss the dipperino; – levels $BTC $ETH $SOL – now what? – our fresh entries (this AM) $ENA $EIGEN ￰31￱ — Dentoshi (@Dentoshi) September 22, 2025 Playbook for the next 1–2 weeks Respect the ￰32￱ long yields post-cut = “hawkish cut” ￰33￱ the 10-year cools, risk appetite improves; if it climbs, be ￰34￱ ￰35￱ reclaiming the mid-range with momentum is your green light for broader ￰36￱ BTC drifts into the EMA/demand cluster and reacts well, alts get room to ￰37￱ ￰38￱ TOTAL3/“Others” to break and hold above supply bands. Otherwise, avoid chasing and look for fade → retest → reclaim ￰39￱ entry archetypes only: Breakout-strength: Fresh highs and higher-low support on low timeframes – but only if the market looks good as a whole.

Retest-logic: Flush into pre-mapped demand with EMAs rising underneath (your “plunge protection”). Risk management: Position size so that your invalidation (below impulse or key EMA structure) equals a known% of portfolio ￰40￱ hero leverage in a macro-heavy ￰41￱ this felt like a “hawkish cut” Expected size (25 bps) → no upside surprise. Powell’s tone: “not in a rush to ease” → markets re-priced path-of-cuts ￰42￱ plot: bias to cut again this year, but the committee is split. Bonds: long rates up; steepening ￰43￱ are classic “hawkish cut” breadcrumbs — and they map cleanly to the crypto hesitation we ￰44￱ you haven’t been following our Friday Trading Spaces livestream (via @krakenfx ) then you’re missing the alpha.

Here’s from last Friday’s discussion where @Dentoshi and I were looking at ETH price ￰45￱ forward to today and you’ll see how it played out ￰46￱ — Matthew Howells-Barby Ξ ￰47￱ (@matthewbarby) September 22, 2025 Want more of Dentoshi’s process? If you’re new to our Trading Spaces series, check recent recaps on the Kraken Blog for deeper breakdowns of Dentoshi’s momentum and retest ￰48￱ word: We’re at that knife-edge: either a quick show of strength across majors unlocks the next leg, or we get a deeper markdown that gifts better ￰49￱ then, let the market come to your ￰50￱ your chart pattern , map the invalidation and wait for your ￰51￱ with Dentoshi on Kraken Pro