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September 16, 2025Seeking Alpha logoSeeking Alpha

Ripple: Key Developments Setting Up Long-Term Growth For XRP

Summary Ripple (XRP-USD) has surged 36% since the last update, outpacing the S&P 500, amid several positive catalysts for ￰0￱ upcoming launch of the first spot XRP ETF and the strategic acquisition of Rail position XRP for increased adoption and utility. Ripple's application for a ￰1￱ bank charter and potential to capture 14% of SWIFT volume by 2030 could drive long-term growth for ￰2￱ indicate bullish momentum for XRP, with a breakout likely if price surpasses the 52-week high; Fed rate decisions may further impact ￰3￱ ( XRP-USD ) had multiple developments since my last ￰4￱ price of XRP increased 36% since the last article while the S&P 500 ( SPY ) increased 12.5% over the same ￰5￱ new developments for Ripple can act as positive catalysts for the price of XRP as we head into the end of the ￰6￱ technicals also look positive, indicating the potential for the next leg higher for the price of XRP.

Ripple's Recent Developments First Spot ETF to Launch Soon The first spot XRP ETF from Rex-Osprey was set to launch on September 12, 2025. However, the launch was moved to September 18, ￰7￱ ETF was approved by the SEC after a 75-day ￰8￱ introduction of a spot ETF allows investors to get exposure to XRP without using hard wallets and crypto ￰9￱ can purchase the ETF just like a stock from standard brokerage accounts and within ￰10￱ this will be the first spot XRP ETF, it will not the first XRP-related ETF to be ￰11￱ Shares Trust launched ( XRPI ) back in May 2025. However, XRPI is not a spot XRP ETF which holds XRP ￰12￱ ETF is a multiple-asset fund that holds fixed-income investments with exposure to XRP through ￰13￱ launch of the first spot XRP ETF brings more awareness to the asset which could drive demand higher, putting upward pressure on the ￰14￱ of Rail In August 2025, Ripple agreed to acquire Rail for $200 ￰15￱ is a stablecoin-powered payments infrastructure ￰16￱ is expected to help streamline Ripple's operations by adding virtual accounts and back-office infrastructure to Ripple's ￰17￱ acquisition is expected to close in Q4 ￰18￱ combined company will allow customers to manage multiple payment types and it enables customers to make transactions with digital assets without crypto bank accounts/wallets on centralized ￰19￱ also supports payments in numerous digital assets including XRP and Ripple's ￰20￱ will have access to a set of stablecoin payments tools without the need to have crypto on their balance ￰21￱ acquisition occurred as demand increased for stablecoin-based flows.

Ripple's President, Monica Long, said: "Stablecoins are quickly becoming a cornerstone of modern finance, and with Rail, we are uniquely positioned to drive the next phase of innovation and adoption of stablecoins and blockchain in global ￰22￱ has one of the most widely used digital asset payment networks in the world, and this acquisition underscores our commitment to helping our global customer base to move money wherever and whenever they need." I see the acquisition of Rail as a key strategic move which places Ripple on the cutting edge of stablecoin usage for global ￰23￱ places Ripple as a leader in stablecoin usage, which may help drive the price of XRP higher over the ￰24￱ For ￰25￱ Bank Charter In July 2025, Ripple applied for a national bank charter from ￰26￱ the charter is approved, it wouldn't give Ripple the ability to issue loan or to accept deposits.

However, the bank charter would allow Ripple to oversee client funds, to custody assets, and to overlay financial ￰27￱ appears to be to way for Ripple to become vertically ￰28￱ the bank charter, Ripple could reduce its reliance on 3rd ￰29￱ bank charter could enable faster settlement times and lower costs as the use of intermediary banks would not be ￰30￱ settlements could be achieved with a stable regulated digital token and a smart ￰31￱ is current waiting on the approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the apex banking regulator in the ￰32￱ crypto-friendly policies from the current ￰33￱ (ie. Genius Act ) increases the chance of a bank charter ￰34￱ To Capture SWIFT Volume Ripple CEO, Brad Garlinghouse, estimated that XRP could capture 14% of SWIFT volume by ￰35￱ currently handles $150 trillion per year in global payments .

Therefore, capturing 14% of that amounts to XRP potentially handling $21 trillion in payments per year by ￰36￱ $21 trillion per year equates to $58 billion per day in global payment ￰37￱ XRP capturing more of SWIFT's volume over time is a likely positive catalyst for XRP's long-term price ￰38￱ are projecting the price of XRP to reach $12 to $20 by ￰39￱ is significantly higher than the current XRP price of $3.12. Technical Perspective Ripple (XRP-USD) Weekly Price Chart w/ RSI & MACD (TradingView) XRP's weekly chart above shows the price in a bull flag ￰40￱ is possible that the two green candles from the past 2 weeks are the beginning of the next leg higher.

However, there has been a pause in the rise at the beginning of the current ￰41￱ breakout of the next leg higher would be confirmed if the price closes above the 52-week high of $3.64 after a full week is ￰42￱ a breakout like that occurs, then the price may get more positive momentum as investors buy into the price ￰43￱ RSI is currently in the bullish zone above 50 but still below the overbought area of ￰44￱ suggests the price could continue to rally during this ￰45￱ I say 'this cycle', I mean the current bitcoin price cycle which the alt coins like XRP are correlated ￰46￱ MACD looks mostly neutral with the blue MACD line about even with the red signal ￰47￱ histogram bars indicate lost momentum in recent weeks as they shortened in ￰48￱ MACD currently indicates a pause in the momentum from the previous two ￰49￱ should be interesting to see how the price reacts to the results of the Federal Reserve meeting on September 16 & 17 this week and the launch of the first XRP spot ETF on September ￰50￱ odds show a 92.2% chance that the Fed lowers interest rates by 0.25% .

Lower rates could lead to a shift of capital to digital assets like ￰51￱ of that news could be priced in since investors were already anticipating the high chance of a rate ￰52￱ factor will be what the Fed says about future ￰53￱ Risks for XRP Crypto assets are typically highly ￰54￱ is highly correlated to bitcoin, which has extreme price movements based on bitcoin's halving ￰55￱ price of XRP declined about 85% after the peak of the last cycle from April 2021 to June ￰56￱ are likely near the end of bitcoin's price cycle which lasted exactly 1,064 days from the price bottom to the peak in the last two price ￰57￱ the current cycle lasts 1,064 days, the peak for this cycle would be in ￰58￱ course, this cycle could be shorter or longer than the previous two cycles.

We'll have to ￰59￱ can be a risk for Ripple. Crypto-based competitors that offer cross-border payment solutions include: Circle ( CRCL ), AZA Finance , Stellar ( XLM-USD ), and ￰60￱ also competes with the established SWIFT payment ￰61￱ is possible that one or more of these competitors develop attractive solutions for fast and inexpensive cross-border payment ￰62￱ could take market share away from ￰63￱ could have a negative impact on the price of ￰64￱ XRP's Long-Term Outlook I like Ripple's developments with the Rail acquisition and the effort to obtain a national bank charter in the United ￰65￱ could establish Ripple as a long-term leader for the global use of ￰66￱ demand for XRP could also increase as a spot ETF is soon to be ￰67￱ has the potential to capture some of SWIFT's market share, which can create strong, long-term ￰68￱ can help drive the price of XRP higher over the ￰69￱ the previous price cycles are similar to the current one, we could still see a blow-off top where prices increase at a rapid pace in a short period of time (within a few months).

There is no guarantee that will happen again in this cycle. So, investors could keep their eye on the longer-term, looking 5 years ahead for Ripple to capture SWIFT's market share over ￰70￱ long-term perspective can eliminate emotional reactions with short-term price ￰71￱ can also consider dollar-cost averaging in when significant price declines occur with XRP.

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