Old Bitcoin Supply Remains Calm: ASOL Shows No Panic Selling

Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling to hold the $110,000 support level as price pressure intensifies heading into the final days of the ￰0￱ structure remains fragile following recent volatility, and several analysts warn that BTC could still retest lower demand zones before establishing a stronger ￰1￱ liquidity pockets sitting below current price and sellers showing persistence near resistance, short-term downside cannot be ruled out as traders reassess positioning after the Federal Reserve’s policy shift. However, not all signals point to ￰2￱ investors remain optimistic as macroeconomic conditions begin favoring risk assets once ￰3￱ Fed’s recent 25bps rate cut and confirmation that quantitative tightening will end by December 1st have laid the groundwork for what some view as the early phase of a new liquidity cycle — historically constructive for Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.

On-chain data also supports a calmer market ￰4￱ the past month, the activity of old coins has remained moderate, with long-term holders showing no signs of panic ￰5￱ behavior suggests conviction among seasoned market participants, even as BTC navigates short-term turbulence. Collectively, these dynamics frame a market in transition: tactically cautious, yet strategically positioned for potential ￰6￱ ASOL Activity Signals Strong Holder Conviction According to on-chain insights highlighted by top analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin’s recent spending behavior among long-term holders remains remarkably stable, underscoring strong market conviction even as price struggles to hold above key ￰7￱ points to the Average Spent Output Lifespan (ASOL) — a metric that measures the average age of coins being moved on-chain — noting that while there were short-lived upticks to 245 days on October 8 and 209 days on October 21, these signals were far weaker than the heavy long-term holder activity seen in spring and ￰8￱ distinction is important: during those earlier periods, older coins moving signaled meaningful distribution events, often preceding corrective ￰9￱ contrast, the recent mild increases indicate no widespread desire among long-term holders to exit ￰10￱ 30-day ASOL moving average currently sits near 111 days, which Adler characterizes as a structural baseline — a zone consistent with healthy consolidation rather than ￰11￱ practical terms, this means seasoned holders remain patient, showing no urgency to take profits, despite macro uncertainty and short-term ￰12￱ the same time, incoming liquidity continues to absorb supply, as referenced in this week’s Substack ￰13￱ absorption dynamic is crucial: it reflects a market where available Bitcoin is gradually tightening, enabling price stability even as speculative flows remain constrained.

Collectively, these on-chain conditions suggest a foundational phase rather than ￰14￱ liquidity improves and macro headwinds ease, this quiet conviction among long-term holders could form the groundwork for the next significant leg higher — once demand meaningfully ￰15￱ now, the market remains calm beneath the surface, a posture historically associated with accumulation phases and future expansion rather than broader distribution or ￰16￱ Holds Above $110K But Faces Rejections Below Resistance Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $110,100, attempting to stabilize after another sharp rejection from the $117,500 resistance area — a level that has consistently capped upside attempts since ￰17￱ 12-hour chart shows a repeat pattern: each move toward the upper range fades near the cluster of moving averages, with sellers stepping in aggressively at resistance and forcing BTC back into its mid-range support ￰18￱ is currently holding above a key demand band between $108,500 and $110,000, an area that previously acted as a pivot during late-September and early-October price ￰19￱ this zone is critical for bulls.

A breakdown here would expose Bitcoin to the $104,000–$106,000 region, where price wicked during the October 10 liquidation ￰20￱ the upside, a structural shift requires BTC to reclaim the 50- and 100-period moving averages on the 12h timeframe and establish a foothold above $114,500. Only then would momentum build for another test of $117,500, with a confirmed breakout opening a path toward $120,000–$123,000. For now, Bitcoin remains range-bound, caught between macro optimism and lingering supply ￰21￱ volatility compressing again, the next strong move is likely to come once the market digests recent policy shifts and liquidity flows begin redirecting ￰22￱ image from ChatGPT, chart from ￰23￱