Experienced Analyst Says Recent Drop Was a “Bear Trap,” Claims 2020-Like Rally Could Happen

Cryptocurrency analyst Shanaka Anslem Perera shared a remarkable analysis after Bitcoin (BTC) dropped from $126,000 to $105,000. According to Perera, despite the market's panic selling, “smart money” is quietly accumulating, a process reminiscent of the period before the big rally in 2020. “Wall Street is calling it capitulation, Reddit is crying bear ￰0￱ this time, there's a bear trap everyone's missing,” Perera ￰1￱ to the analyst's analysis, based on Glassnode data, addresses holding between 1,000 and 1,000 BTC have been in a net accumulation phase since early ￰2￱ group of investors continues to buy, even as the price of Bitcoin has fallen from $118,000 to $108,000.

Related News: Chinese Experts Comment on the Future of Bitcoin Prices Pointing out that Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score is at 2.15, Perera stated that this historically points to periods of accumulation: “When the Z-score drops below 2, that’s the pain zone. That’s when smart money accumulates.” Perera noted that institutional demand generated by ETFs significantly exceeds Bitcoin ￰3￱ argues that when looking at Bitcoin cycles, the current market bears similarities to the period before the major rally in ￰4￱ that time, the market was considered “dead” when Bitcoin was around $12,000, followed by a 170% ￰5￱ News: Chinese Experts Comment on the Future of Bitcoin Prices Analyst Axel Adler identifies the $106,000-$107,000 range as the critical support zone, while 21Shares analyst Matt Mena predicts that Bitcoin could rise to $150,000 by the end of the ￰6￱ also noted that the US government shutdown at the end of 2018 marked Bitcoin's ￰7￱ that time, Bitcoin fell from $6,000 to $3,000, before a strong recovery ￰8￱ this context, Perera stated that the current government shutdown could have a similar effect, and analyst Joe Consorti quoted Bitcoin as moving with a lag of approximately 100 days compared to gold, and according to JPMorgan’s model, the year-end fair value is around $165,000.

Perera concluded his analysis with the following statement: “Every major Bitcoin bottom looks the same: despair, capitulation, and quiet buying by the smart money. $3,000 in 2018, $12,000 in 2020, now $105,000 in 2025.” According to Perera, the current level could be the final accumulation phase before the final ￰9￱ analyst predicts that if the 100,000 support level holds, Bitcoin could reach the $150,000-$165,000 range by the end of the year. *This is not investment ￰10￱ Reading: Experienced Analyst Says Recent Drop Was a “Bear Trap,” Claims 2020-Like Rally Could Happen