Dogecoin Awaits Risk-On Ignition As 2021 Pattern Repeats

Dogecoin is back in a familiar posture on multiple timeframes, according to crypto analyst Osemka (@Osemka8), who argues that price action is tracking the “OTHERS” index almost one-for-one and is now deep inside a textbook Wyckoff ￰0￱ latest charts—one a decade-long view, the other a daily structure map—frame the current chop as the classic test phase that tends to exhaust both sides before trend continuation. Dogecoin’s Perfect Wyckoff Trap On the long-horizon chart, Dogecoin’s history resolves into a sequence of rounded basing formations that preceded its two vertical ￰1￱ first arc matured from 2014 into 2017 before the initial markup; the second spanned 2018 through 2020 and ended with the 2021 blow-off; and a third, broader arc has been curving under price action from 2022 into ￰2￱ DOGE is currently trading below $0.20, the rounding contour is again still intact—visually rhyming with the two prior launch setups that culminated in rapid expansions once supply thinned out above range ￰3￱ shorter-term daily chart annotates the Wyckoff schematic in granular ￰4￱ labels the Preliminary Support (PS) and Selling Climax (SC) earlier in the year, followed by an Automatic Rally (AR) and a Secondary Test (ST) to confirm the lower boundary of a gently rising channel.

A sharp downdraft into a “Spring”—accompanied by conspicuously high capitulation volume—punctured the channel intraday before snapping back, an action that often functions as the terminal shakeout of Phase C in the classical ￰5￱ Reading: Dogecoin Faces Final Boss At 0.886 Fib As Bulls Eye $0.25 Reclaim Since then, price has coiled in what the chart calls the “Test phase,” compressing roughly between $0.18 and $0.22 as bids and offers probe for residual supply. Overhead, a shaded local supply zone sits in the $0.26 to $0.28 area and lines up with the upper half of the channel; the channel’s ceiling runs into the low-$0.30s (~$0.32), where initial supply repeatedly slows advances.

“DOGE coin follows OTHERS index almost 1:1. A perfect Wyckoff accumulation ￰6￱ phase driving everyone nuts,” Osemka noted via ￰7￱ Environment Still Not Ready Yet The analyst’s market read ties the micro to the macro playbook he has tracked ￰8￱ an October 7 note, Osemka highlighted that DOGE is typically late to the risk rotation: breadth improves first, IWM (small caps: iShares Russell 2000 ETF) breaks out, alts begin to rise, and only when the OTHERS index clears its prior all-time high does Dogecoin tend to accelerate. “Rounded bottom on DOGE each ￰9￱ DOGE is that coin that does nothing the entire cycle then rips faces off, it’s interesting to compare what happens after macro environment switches to Risk-on ￰10￱ I can get from this is nothing ￰11￱ IWM breaks out, alts start to rise and DOGE still lags behind, but just a ￰12￱ once OTHERS breaks it’s ATH is when DOGE starts flying,” the analyst ￰13￱ most recent exchange with followers keeps that conditionality intact; he acknowledges that, by his OTHERS fractal, “one stab lower” remains possible before markup, especially with Bitcoin liquidity a few percent lower on his ￰14￱ Wyckoff terms, that would be a final test or spring-within-the-spring, designed to validate demand at or just under the $0.18–$0.22 coil before a Sign of Strength (SOS) can assert above $0.32.

Related Reading: Dogecoin Slams Into $2.22 Billion Wall At $0.21 But Targets Above Are Explosive Context across the memecoin complex is ￰15￱ notes that PENGU has been outperforming DOGE on his relative charts “at the moment,” even as he lists TAO, DOGE, and ONDO as the “best-looking setups” for altcoins, with TAO “by far the strongest” and “other alts” screened as ￰16￱ implication is rotation rather than dispersion: DOGE’s structure is constructive, but confirmation still hinges on a clean exit from the accumulation range and the broader risk-on ignition he maps via IWM and ￰17￱ traders mapping levels off these panels, the near-term battlegrounds are ￰18￱ test box at $0.18–$0.22 has to hold its series of higher lows to keep Phase D in play; the local supply at $0.26–$0.28 is the first meaningful resistance shelf that must be absorbed; and the rising channel top near ~$0.32 is where bulls take ￰19￱ sustained acceptance above those bands would upgrade the structure from accumulation to markup, aligning DOGE with the 2017 and 2021 launch sequences that Osemka’s rounded-bottom study brings into ￰20￱ then, the “perfect Wyckoff trap” characterization remains apt: the range is doing what ranges do—testing patience and conviction—while the intermarket checklist that has historically preceded DOGE’s impulsive legs waits for its final ￰21￱ press time, DOGE traded at $0.194.

Featured image created with DALL. E, chart from ￰22￱