Bitcoin’s (BTC) Double-DIgit Post-Halving Surge Hasn’t Hit Overbought Yet

Bitcoin (BTC) scored a new all-time high of $126,100 on Monday. However, profit-taking overpowered the market, and the crypto asset retreated by 4%. by ￰0￱ came the Trump-induced fear, and BTC plunged to $101,000 on some exchanges before it recovered to $112,000 as of press ￰1￱ this, new data suggest that the real bull market phase could still be ahead. Bitcoin’s “Warm Zone” Momentum Binance market data indicates that Bitcoin has entered an important phase in its post-halving cycle, and is showing signs of measured strength rather than a speculative ￰2￱ of this week, over 530 days since the April 20, 2024, halving, Bitcoin is trading near $112,000, which is an 85% increase from its halving-day price of roughly $63,800.

The data positions the market at 35% through its typical four-year cycle, a midpoint historically characterized by steady but controlled upward ￰3￱ noted that the cryptocurrency remains comfortably short of overheating ￰4￱ Z-Score, a metric used to gauge price deviation from historical averages, currently stands at ￰5￱ places Bitcoin within a “neutral momentum” zone, well below the 2.5 threshold that has previously indicated speculative excess and impending ￰6￱ addition to that, the 30-day moving average sits at about $115,913, and reflects a stable ascent rather than a parabolic ￰7￱ indicators further support the narrative of a steady ￰8￱ data shows Bitcoin’s 30-day standard deviation at approximately $4,540, indicating low volatility and potential price compression.

Interestingly, these conditions often precede major directional moves if supported by renewed liquidity inflows. Historically, Bitcoin’s price peaks have occurred between 500 and 600 days after each halving, a window that saw major cycle tops in 2013, 2017, and ￰9￱ the current cycle approaching this range, traders are watching closely for signs of acceleration or deviation from past ￰10￱ long-term holders and institutions continue to consolidate positions, the market remains in a phase of balanced ￰11￱ coming months will test whether Bitcoin repeats its familiar boom-and-peak trajectory or matures into a steadier, less volatile growth ￰12￱ Euphoria, Yet Bitcoin Vector’s analysis also echoed a similar ￰13￱ long-term holders moving coins to exchanges suggest some selling, which resulted in a mild pullback, the activity is moderate and persistent rather than ￰14￱ market shows no signs of ￰15￱ this transfer spike eases while on-chain fundamentals remain strong, it would validate confidence in Bitcoin’s uptrend, supporting continued momentum through Q4.