Bitcoin: What Lies Behind God's Candle

Summary Bitcoin experienced a rare $13,000 whiplash, triggering a massive deleveraging and testing the 200-day moving average as key support. BTC's short-term outlook depends on defending the 200D average and volatility normalizing, with resistance at the 126k level. On-chain data shows long-term holders are not capitulating, suggesting the move was a leverage purge, not a macro ￰0￱ bullish bias remains, contingent on stable on-chain signals, ETF inflows, and no further trade-policy shocks disrupting the ￰1￱ Story TradingView Last Friday’s candle left a mark rarely seen in Bitcoin. A tremendous whiplash of about $13,000 (-10.7%) in a matter of hours, with a deep fuse that went to look for the 200-day average zone (the yellow line of the graph) and an immediate rebound from ￰2￱ was a manual ￰3￱ was too much leverage built up in derivatives, stops piled up on obvious supports, and liquidity compressed into a maturing ￰4￱ the short term, that touch and defense of the 200D suggests that the first relevant support is already identified (111k–115k) and that the resistance above is still the 126k strip marked on the ￰5￱ after such a violent movement is that it is normal to see days of “digestion” (wide ranges, bounces that test resistances and possible second passes to the support).

If spot and ETF flows return and volatility normalizes without another liquidity scare, the baseline scenario is one of bullish ￰6￱ A spin of “spies” and insider trading has been added to ￰7￱ on-chain and press sources have pointed to a newly created account at Hyperliquid that opened massive shorts on BTC and ETH minutes before Trump's post on China tariffs and that would have later closed with an estimated P&L of $150–200 ￰8￱ portfolios being followed, in case the reader wants to investigate, are: 0xb317d2bc2d3d2df5fa441b5bae0ab9d8b07283ae 0x2ea18c23f72a4b6172c55b411823cdc5335923f4 In parallel, that same operator would have reopened additional shorts after the crash, reaching sizes between $150 and $400 M in new positions, according to The Block and crypto press ￰9￱ are accusations of “insider trading”, but the supposedly involved denies this publicly, and, for the moment, there is no conclusive evidence beyond timing and on-chain ￰10￱ any case, the macro context fits with this ￰11￱ tariffs tweet was the precursor to a record deleveraging, with $19 settled in 24 hours, the largest settlement day on record, and a sweep that took BTC from 121k to the 106–110k zone before the ￰12￱ fact that a big actor has “anticipated” the headline does not change the background reading that we pointed out ￰13￱ Friday’s event was a leverage purge in a market with tight liquidity and stacked stops; going forward, the focus is on whether the asset can defend the 200D average and whether volatility normalizes without further trade-policy ￰14￱ that happens, the baseline scenario remains a staggered ￰15￱ Perspectives Node Analytica Following Friday’s whiplash, the indicator that captures whether long-term holders are spending (the gray bars/area and the BI line on the 0–1 scale) showed distribution pulses, but without sustained de-anchoring to a “high-risk” zone (≈0.9).

We saw a profit-taking in strong hands, yes, but not a capitulation of old currencies. Moreover, LTH (orange line) supply has been falling since its highs but remains high in cyclical terms, suggesting that the “hard core” did not sell in ￰16￱ ahead to the coming weeks, as long as the BI does not soar and remains below the red threshold, the reading is compatible with a leverage purge rather than a macro ￰17￱ signal to watch out for would be a persistent jump in GDP toward 0.9, with a clear loss in 200D, reinforcing the scenario of another price sweep before resuming a ￰18￱ Analytica The percentage of offer in profit (orange) remains high even after Friday's sweep, and the NPC (blue) marked very negative readings (own distribution and forced liquidations) that, historically, tend to reverse when fast sellers run ￰19￱ fact that most coins remain “green” after such a fall is an important nuance, as it reduces the likelihood of distress sales and favors lateral digestion phases with rebounds towards resistances (in our price graph, the 126k zone).

This bias is invalidated if the supply to profit drops rapidly towards stress levels and the NPC remains deeply negative for several consecutive weeks (signal of more structural distribution and high risk of support rupture). Node Analytica The trend signal receded after the shock but remains positive (+11% on the panel), aligned with the idea that Friday’s move responds more to a liquidity shock than to a regime ￰20￱ long as the signal does not decisively cross negative ground and the price respects the average of 200 sessions, the dominant playbook is the step-by-step reconstruction (wide range, validation of supports, ordered attack on resistors).

A sustained crossover of the signal below 0% alongside below-200D closures would shift the focus to defense and risk management, with an eye toward intermediate supports before setting new ￰21￱ the risk front, the most visible is the repetition of trade policy holders reopening the forced-selling channel in derivatives (a market still sensitive to the recent redistribution of leverage). A possible tightening of financial conditions via a strong dollar or a rebound in real yields is also weighing ￰22￱ a counterweight, positive catalysts go through sustained net inflows into spot and ETF, normalization of funding without abrupt upswings, and implicit volatility that descends by notches (facilitating trend reconstruction and carrying directional positions).

The final thesis is a maintenance of the bullish bias conditioned on the signals commented on in the ￰23￱ you for reading.