Bitcoin Weak-Hand Selling Slows: STH-SOPR Reset Hints At Potential Rally Setup

Bitcoin (BTC) witnessed a slight surge earlier today, climbing from $113,000 to around $117,000 at the time of writing, in contrast to expectations of several crypto analysts who were predicting a decline in risk-on assets due to the US government ￰0￱ Rises Despite US Government Shutdown The US federal government shut down at midnight on September 30, as President Donald Trump and Congress failed to reach a deal on funding. Specifically, the two camps were at odds over enhanced Obamacare subsidies, with neither party willing to take the ￰1￱ Reading: Bitcoin Momentum Indicator: Why 600,000 Transactions Threshold Matters Most However, Bitcoin made a surprise move to the upside despite the uncertain environment created by the US government shutdown, recording strong gains earlier ￰2￱ analyst Kripto Mevsimi stated that September saw deeper losses among short-term holders (STH), as their Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) fell as low as ￰3￱ a result, most of September was marked by STH continuing to sell their BTC holdings at a loss.

However, the metric recovered slightly to 0.995, although it is still below August’s reading of ￰4￱ current STH-SOPR reading is showing signs of stabilization after a period of ￰5￱ is interesting to note the timing of this recovery, as it occurred at a time when BTC is trading in the high $110,000 range, slightly below a heavy resistance ￰6￱ data shows two potential scenarios that can happen following such a reset in the STH-SOPR. First, it could be early warning signs of a weakening momentum for BTC, as extended loss realization can precede corrective phases where weak hands ￰7￱ other, more bullish scenario, is that it could be a healthy ￰8￱ absorption of realized losses often paves the way for more sustainable rallies, which could catapult BTC to new all-time highs (ATH) in the near ￰9￱ CryptoQuant analyst added: With BTC consolidating under resistance, this rebound in STH-SOPR is a key barometer of market ￰10￱ buyers continue to absorb weak-hand selling, it could mirror past resets that paved the way for the next leg ￰11￱ BTC Decline In Q4 2025?

While the dwindling active circulating supply of Bitcoin offers some hope to the bulls, others are not as ￰12￱ to recent analysis by fellow CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler, demand for BTC cooled after it failed to hold above $115,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Go To Zero, Hedge Fund CEO Warns Meanwhile, crypto analyst Doctor Profit recently remarked that BTC is likely to experience another 20% decline from its current price, reaching his projected target range between $90,000 – $94,000. At press time, BTC trades at $117,226, up 3.5% in the past 24 ￰13￱ image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and ￰14￱