Bitcoin is trading at a critical level after a quiet weekend, with bulls managing to defend key supports but struggling to generate fresh upside 0 market remains tense as investors await the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision scheduled for this Wednesday. A potential 25-basis-point cut is widely anticipated, which many see as a sign of a gradual pivot rather than an aggressive 1 a move could spark optimism across risk assets, including crypto, as it signals a more supportive monetary environment without triggering fears of economic 2 Reading: Three Whales Buy $205M Ethereum From FalconX: Institutional Flows Accelerate For Bitcoin, the focus is on whether it can sustain its position above critical price levels while macroeconomic factors shape broader 3 from CryptoQuant shows that BTC is increasingly shifting into “HODL mode,” with supply moving off exchanges and into long-term 4 pattern suggests that conviction-driven holders are accumulating rather than selling, reducing available liquidity on the 5 combination of macro catalysts and strengthening onchain fundamentals sets the stage for a pivotal 6 Bitcoin holds its ground through the Fed’s announcement, the groundwork could be laid for renewed momentum once volatility surrounding the decision begins to 7 Spot Volumes Halve Bitcoin enters a decisive week with a striking shift in market 8 analyst Axel Adler shared insights showing that in January 2025, spot trading volumes peaked at $636 billion, but by August, that figure had nearly halved to $322 9 sharp decline in trading activity on centralized exchanges (CEXs) underscores a market in transition, with participants moving away from active speculation and into what Adler describes as “HODL mode.” The drop in volumes reflects a broader cooling of short-term trading 10 appear less inclined to chase rapid price moves, instead opting for long-term accumulation 11 data supports this, showing consistent outflows as Bitcoin is withdrawn into private wallets and cold 12 behavior indicates a growing conviction that BTC’s value lies in its long-term potential rather than short-term trading 13 Bitcoin, the combination of halving spot activity and mounting anticipation for the Fed’s move creates a tense 14 one hand, reduced selling pressure from sidelined traders supports price 15 the other hand, thin liquidity raises the risk of sharper swings once volatility 16 Bitcoin holds near critical levels, the coming days may determine whether this HODL-driven environment provides the foundation for resilience—or if macro forces spark a more dramatic revaluation across the crypto 17 Reading: Bitcoin Crawls Up On Weak Supply: 30D Momentum Reveals It Lacks Real Demand Technical Details: Holding Key Demand Bitcoin is currently trading near $114,987, showing signs of consolidation after its recent bounce from early September lows around $110,000.
The daily chart highlights that BTC has reclaimed both the 50-day SMA at $114,399 and the 100-day SMA at $112,681, strengthening the short-term bullish 18 moving averages now serve as immediate support levels, indicating that buyers are regaining 19 key resistance remains at $116,000–$117,000, where BTC has struggled to establish a sustained breakout. A successful close above this zone would clear the path toward retesting the cycle high at $123,217. This level has been a major barrier since July and will be the defining hurdle for bulls in the weeks 20 Reading: Bitcoin Holds 4% Above STH Cost Basis As Mature Bull Cycle Demands Discounts On the downside, support is around $112,500, aligning with the 100-day SMA.
A break below this level could reopen the risk of a retest of $110,000, which has acted as a critical 21 200-day SMA at $102,652 remains the ultimate safety net in case of deeper 22 image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
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