Bitcoin Price Prediction:  What Onchain Signals Suggest for BTC Price Direction – Up or Down?

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is once again testing investor conviction as it trades near $111,700, consolidating after a sharp 16% correction from recent ￰0￱ according to ARK Invest’s Q3 2025 Bitcoin Quarterly , the foundation beneath the market remains resilient, with bullish fundamentals, deep institutional involvement, and a macro backdrop that could set the stage for renewed upside into ￰1￱ Fundamentals Stay Strong Despite Volatility ARK notes that Bitcoin closed Q3 2025 at $114,065, ending the quarter above its short-term holder cost basis of $111,933, a historically crucial bullish threshold. On-Chain Fundamentals Were Strong In The Third Quarter –) reached 14.3 million BTC, up 4.6% YoY, suggesting growing conviction among ￰2￱ after the latest pullback, 94.5% of supply remains in profit, indicating that most holders are not underwater, a bullish on-chain structure rarely seen outside mid-cycle consolidations.

Importantly, ARK highlights that Bitcoin’s “supply density” sits near 30%, the highest since 2020, meaning a large share of coins last moved within 15% of the current ￰3￱ clustering often precedes heightened volatility, setting the stage for sharp directional moves once sentiment ￰4￱ and ETF Demand Anchors the Market Institutional involvement continues to expand ￰5￱ to ARK’s data: Public companies’ digital-asset treasuries (DATs) boosted holdings by 40% in 2025, reaching 1.1 million BTC or 5.6% of total ￰6￱ Bitcoin ETFs now control 1.3 million BTC (6.6% of supply), a record high. Notably, every historical peak in ETF balances has preceded a new cycle price high.

Combined, ETFs and DATs hold 12.2% of all Bitcoin, underscoring how institutional accumulation is tightening available supply. Meanwhile, derivatives data show a healthy but not overheated ￰7￱ funding rates stand near 2.1% and the three-month futures basis is around 7.6%, far below the 43% and 17% extremes seen at the 2021 peak, evidence that leverage remains contained and speculative excess is ￰8￱ Trends: Inflation Eases, Productivity Rises ARK’s macro team expects that fading inflation and weakening labor momentum will push the Federal Reserve toward a dovish ￰9￱ ￰10￱ differential has turned negative for the first time since 2020, the quits rate has fallen to 1.9%, and average unemployment duration has extended to 24.5 ￰11￱ labor softens, price pressures are muted: Truflation’s CPI shows a sub-3% year-on-year trend, well below official ￰12￱ tariffs having minimal inflation impact, ARK believes the Fed’s focus will pivot from inflation to employment, easing financial conditions, a backdrop historically favorable for Bitcoin.

Moreover, deregulation and tax-driven investment incentives under the “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBB) are expected to unleash a productivity boom, with permanent expensing for R&D, software, and equipment expected to lift real GDP growth in ￰13￱ structural growth, ARK argues, aligns with Bitcoin’s appeal as a technological and monetary ￰14￱ and new ideas. Therefore, Bitcoin could benefit as investors search for better ￰15￱ (BTC/USD) Technical Outlook: Bulls Defend $108K Support From a technical lens, Bitcoin remains range-bound but ￰16￱ $108,000–$110,000 zone aligns with the 200-day moving average and on-chain mean support at $104,772. The RSI (40.6) signals mild oversold conditions, while contracting MACD histograms suggest waning bearish ￰17￱ BTC breaks above $117,000, it could trigger a short-term rally toward $124,000–$126,000, retesting previous ￰18￱ to defend $108,000 may expose $103,000 and $98,200, consistent with the 50% Fibonacci retracement from June’s ￰19￱ swing traders, ARK’s data-supported structure points to a buy-the-dip opportunity near $108K, with tight risk below $107.5K and targets near $124K–$126K.

Outlook: Positioned for Growth, Poised for Volatility ARK concludes that while Bitcoin’s cyclical timing suggests late-stage bull-market conditions (about 18 months post-halving), structural fundamentals remain highly ￰20￱ security, institutional absorption, and moderating macro pressures provide a robust floor, though elevated supply density warns of volatility spikes ￰21￱ short: Bitcoin may wobble before it surges, but its long-term trajectory remains upward, fueled by record institutional ownership, tightening supply, and improving macro ￰22￱ 2025 draws to a close, the next significant move could define the opening narrative for ￰23￱ Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) Combines BTC Security With Solana Speed Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) is positioning itself as the first Bitcoin-native Layer 2 powered by the Solana Virtual Machine (SVM).

Its goal is to expand the BTC ecosystem by enabling lightning-fast, low-cost smart contracts, decentralized apps, and even meme coin ￰24￱ combining BTC’s unmatched security with Solana’s high-performance framework, the project opens the door to entirely new use cases, including seamless BTC bridging and scalable dApp ￰25￱ team has put strong emphasis on trust and scalability, with the project audited by Consult to give investors confidence in its ￰26￱ is building ￰27￱ presale has already crossed $23 million, leaving only a limited allocation still ￰28￱ today’s stage, HYPER tokens are priced at just $0.013095—but that figure will increase as the presale ￰29￱ can buy HYPER tokens on the official Bitcoin Hyper website using crypto or a bank ￰30￱ Here to Participate in the Presale