Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Price Stalls Around $115K As Traders Anticipate China Trade Deal Resolution

Bitcoin is trading sideways, hovering around $114,500, down 0.50% over the last 24 ￰0￱ market remains in consolidation as traders assess global macroeconomic trends and await progress on the U. S.–China trade ￰1￱ world’s largest cryptocurrency holds a market capitalization of $2.28 trillion, with daily trading volumes exceeding $47 billion, reflecting strong participation even as price momentum ￰2￱ Deal Optimism Lifts Market Confidence The recent optimism stems from reports that ￰3￱ Chinese negotiators have reached a consensus on key trade ￰4￱ framework, which will be finalized later this week by Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, covers sensitive issues such as export controls, rare-earth minerals, and ￰5￱ Chinese officials hashed out the framework of a trade deal for Trump and Xi to finalize later this ￰6￱ 100% tariffs on Chinese goods set for Nov 1 have been eliminated, and China is expected to delay rare earth restrictions for a year and resume US soy ￰7￱ — Karen Braun (@kannbwx) October 26, 2025 ￰8￱ Secretary Scott Bessent said the 100% tariff threat on Chinese goods is “off the table,” while China is set to resume substantial soybean purchases and delay restrictions on rare-earth ￰9￱ confirmed, the agreement could ease supply chain pressures and boost investor sentiment, both vital for Bitcoin, which often benefits from reduced macro uncertainty.

U. S.–China Relations Drive Market Sentiment While trade optimism has steadied risk appetite, uncertainty ￰10￱ ￰11￱ Representative (USTR) has launched a Section 301 investigation into China’s trade practices, alleging noncompliance with the 2020 Phase One ￰12￱ probe targets gaps in intellectual property, technology transfers, and agricultural commitments, potentially reigniting tariff tensions. China’s Foreign Ministry rejected the allegations, saying it has “scrupulously fulfilled” its ￰13￱ investigation, running through December 16, could give Washington new grounds to reinstate tariffs if talks stall or earlier sanctions are ￰14￱ Bitcoin investors, such developments add another layer of uncertainty.

Historically, shifts in U. S.–China relations influence global liquidity and risk sentiment, both key drivers of crypto ￰15￱ factors to watch: Progress on the new trade framework The outcome of the USTR probe Dollar strength and liquidity trends A renewed conflict could pressure Bitcoin in the short term, while a clear trade breakthrough may restore global confidence and risk ￰16￱ Technical Outlook: Key Resistance at $114,950 On the technical side, BTC/USD continues to consolidate below $114,950, a critical resistance aligned with the 0.5 Fibonacci ￰17￱ 4-hour chart reveals a potential double-top pattern, signaling buyer fatigue after last week’s rebound from $108,667.

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