Bitcoin May Tank to $100K as Friday’s BTC Crash Reinforced 2017–21 Trendline Resistance

This is a daily analysis by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole. We've probably all heard this phrase: "Once is an accident, twice is a coincidence, three times is a pattern." The old saying is perfectly applicable to the bitcoin (BTC) market, where the crash on Friday marked the third time bulls failed to maintain gains above the critical trendline drawn from the 2017 and 2021 highs, raising the possibility of a deeper drop to $100,000 or ￰0￱ repeated inability to hold above that level highlights a persistent resistance, suggesting that the trendline is now a key battleground likely defining the limits of the bullish strength in this ￰1￱ highlighted the trendline resistance a month ago, noting that bulls had twice failed to maintain gains above ￰2￱ long wicks on the July, August, and October candles signal bull fatigue above the ￰3￱ the same time, the MACD histogram on the monthly chart – although still positive – is lower than it was during the December-January rally when BTC first broke above $100,000, indicating a weakening of upward momentum.

MACD, a moving average-based indicator, is widely used to identify trend changes and trend ￰4￱ daily chart below also paints a bearish ￰5￱ sharp reversal from the expanding channel resistance, combined with negative readings in both the standard (12, 26, 9) and longer-term (50, 100, 9) MACD histograms, signals that the path of least resistance is ￰6￱ longer duration histogram, which uses 50- and 100-day EMAs and a 9-day EMA to smooth the signal, is significantly slower and less sensitive than the default setting, but better suited for filtering out short-term market ￰7￱ together, the monthly and daily charts suggest scope for a drop to sub-$100K levels, marking a test of the lower end of the expanding ￰8￱ the way lower, the 200-day simple moving average at $107,000 could also offer ￰9￱ will need to engineer a break above $121,800 to invalidate the series of lower highs and overturn the bearish ￰10￱ press time, BTC changed hands at $114,800, according to CoinDesk data.