Bitcoin: It's Now Or Never

Summary Bitcoin is at a critical support level near $97,000, presenting a make-or-break moment for its price ￰0￱ bearish signals—liquidity tightening, EMA breakdowns, and a strong dollar—there are catalysts for a potential final ￰1￱ in Fed policy, possible liquidity injections, and institutional adoption via ETFs and regulation could support BTC in the short ￰2￱ current setup favors a long position above $97,000 with tight risk management, as the coming weeks will be pivotal for ￰3￱ Summary Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) broke below $100,000 on Monday, and yes, this is a reason for ￰4￱ I pointed out in my last article , the four-year cycle could be drawing to an end, with US liquidity beginning to falter.

But, at the same time, with Bitcoin near support, this could be a good spot to ￰5￱ sentiment and price have been bearish…is there room for one last push up? I think so, and this is a bet worth taking now. It’s make-or-break time for ￰6￱ Of Reasons To Be Bearish Bitcoin has given us no shortage of reasons to be bearish in the last few months. 4 Year Cycle BTC 4 Year Cycle (Crypto Rover) The Bitcoin halving has always had a strong correlation to ￰7￱ usually see a price rally after the halving, and then lose steam and enter a bear market as we approach the next ￰8￱ to history, Bitcoin should top sometime in Q4 or Q1 of ￰9￱ means the top is imminent, and could even have happened already.

Arguably, halving cycles are getting shorter and shorter, with more people looking to front-run the top and subsequent bear ￰10￱ 50 Week EMA Break BTC Chart (Trendspider) If we move onto the weekly chart, the 50 EMA has traditionally been a key level to hold during bull ￰11￱ did see a monetary break back in 2020 before a final top, but generally speaking, this is a level that should ￰12￱ more damning would be if we got a bearish cross of the 20 and 50 EMA, which occurred back in 2022 and led to a 65% drawdown The Liquidity Issues Lastly, Bitcoin has always been a proxy for ￰13￱ recent sell-off could be a warning sign on the liquidity cycle, and it’s not the only ￰14￱ Spread (New York Fed) We saw a spike in the REPO market, with spreads between SOFR and OPRB expanding to high levels.

A contributing factor towards this has also been the build-up of the TGA and the stronger ￰15￱ (FRED) The TGA is now at $1 trillion, but it should begin to move back down once the government shutdown is ￰16￱ ( TradingView ) Similarly, after months of bearish action, the dollar has been catching a bid, which has been bad for Bitcoin and risk assets. However, we’re now overbought on the daily and could soon see a ￰17￱ This Time Different? The question is whether this time is truly different, as many ￰18￱ I’d argue there is some merit to ￰19￱ Debasement Trade The overarching theme of the debasement trade, in my opinion, is far from played ￰20￱ may be getting a break and reset, but if Gold’s behaviour is any indication, the dollar could have much further to fall.

Ultimately, the name of the game now is how to manage the nearly $40 trillion in debt the US has to service and roll ￰21￱ guess is you need growth and inflation. A New Fed Policy In this regard, we can’t overlook the fact that there’s been a real shift in Fed ￰22￱ has even been stated by members that the Fed has a third mandate , which is to moderate long-term ￰23￱ can only be achieved through monetary ￰24￱ we’re already seeing signs that market stability and lower rates are now more important than ever to the US Central ￰25￱ the first signs of liquidity cracking, Jerome Powell already said that QT would be ending by December 1st. This, at a time when the Fed is also expected to keep cutting rates, with markets already near all-time ￰26￱ and Regulation Lastly, yes, this time is different because of ETFs, institutional adoption, and regulatory clarity provided by the aptly named CLARITY Act, which could be passed by the Senate sometime in early 2026 A Simple Plan Of Action So, in my opinion, there’s enough here to consider another leg ￰27￱ and TGA could reverse course, at least in the short term Fed could add liquidity sooner than expected Institutional adoption could support the price of Bitcoin All in all, this is not a bad setup to go long, with hopes of at least one more push ￰28￱ reduce risk, you can play this with a tight stop at the key support area I’ll outline ￰29￱ TA (Trendspider) In simple terms, I’m bullish above $97,000 and bearish below.

Ideally, I’d like to see us test this level and then rally back up to new all-time ￰30￱ would then allow us to build a final up leg in the year-long bearish divergence we have been ￰31￱ Thoughts The next few weeks will be pivotal for Bitcoin, which will either begin a final rally or break down and initiate a bear ￰32￱ setup right now favors going long, in my opinion, but manage risk accordingly.