Bitcoin Crawls Up On Weak Supply: 30D Momentum Reveals It Lacks Real Demand

Bitcoin is once again gaining momentum, now trading above the $115,000 level after a modest surge ￰0￱ move comes as markets price in growing expectations of a US Federal Reserve interest rate cut at its upcoming meeting next ￰1￱ assets, including crypto, have responded positively to the prospect of looser monetary policy, though the broader backdrop remains ￰2￱ Bitcoin, the challenge now lies in sustaining higher levels as bulls attempt to push ￰3￱ the reclaim of $115K signals strength, the path ahead is clouded with uncertainty as investors weigh macroeconomic risks alongside on-chain ￰4￱ Reading: Bitcoin Holds 4% Above STH Cost Basis As Mature Bull Cycle Demands Discounts Adding perspective, top analyst Axel Adler shared data showing that Bitcoin’s 30-day momentum currently sits in the Impulse Cooling ￰5￱ indicator suggests that while short-term momentum has softened, the broader uptrend remains ￰6￱ emphasizes that the trend is not broken, framing the current phase as a period of consolidation rather than a structural ￰7￱ volatility likely to remain elevated in the days leading up to the Fed’s decision, Bitcoin’s ability to hold above $115,000 could prove ￰8￱ combination of macro catalysts and onchain resilience may define the cryptocurrency’s next significant ￰9￱ Market Drift: Momentum, Liquidity, and Demand According to Adler, Bitcoin’s current setup reflects a phase of sideways action rather than a structural ￰10￱ notes that negative 30-day momentum, while the price holds in the upper range, typically signals step-by-step ￰11￱ other words, coins are changing hands gradually without triggering a full reversal in the ￰12￱ a proper restart and renewed acceleration, Adler identifies a key marker: the 30-day momentum must not only return to positive territory but also ideally push above +10%.

That would confirm a shift back into a strong impulse ￰13￱ then, Adler emphasizes that the market remains in drift mode, shaped by thin ￰14￱ fewer participants actively trading, the price can still crawl upward, largely due to weak supply and localized buybacks. However, this kind of advance carries the risk of a rapid collapse, since any spike in selling pressure could quickly overwhelm shallow order books. Crucially, Adler stresses that real demand does not emerge at cycle highs. Instead, it forms during moments when Bitcoin trades at an obvious ￰15￱ his earlier work on Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis versus Premium/Discount, he highlights that meaningful inflows only arrive when the market offers ￰16￱ a mature bull phase, where buyers are wary of chasing peaks, sustained rallies depend on these discounted entry points rather than speculative momentum ￰17￱ perspective underscores the delicate balance in Bitcoin’s current landscape: still structurally strong, but highly sensitive to liquidity ￰18￱ Reading: Dormant Bitcoin Waking Up: Over 600K BTC Moved Onchain In Weeks BTC Holds Strong Above Demand Bitcoin is currently trading around $115,142 after a strong recovery from the $110,000 zone earlier this ￰19￱ 12-hour chart shows BTC climbing steadily and now pressing against a key cluster of moving ￰20￱ 100 SMA at $114,610 is being tested as resistance, while the 200 SMA at $112,267 has now flipped into support, strengthening the bullish ￰21￱ 50 SMA at $111,987 is also trending upward, suggesting a short-term momentum shift in favor of buyers.

A successful close above $116,000 would mark a significant step forward for bulls, potentially opening the path to retest $118,000 and the critical resistance at $123,217. This level remains the major barrier before Bitcoin can attempt another push toward its all-time ￰22￱ Reading: Ethereum Network Activity Heats Up As Fees Hit $1.4M In 24H On the downside, immediate support rests near $114,000, followed by the $112,000 zone where the 200 SMA is ￰23￱ this level could weaken momentum and invite another round of selling pressure, with downside risks extending toward $110,000. The chart signals that Bitcoin has regained its footing after recent ￰24￱ bulls can hold above the moving averages and break through $116,000, the next leg higher may be underway, though resistance at $123K will be the true ￰25￱ image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView