Arthur Hayes Argues Bitcoin Cycle May Be Driven by US and Chinese Monetary Policy, Four-Year Pattern Could Fail

COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup Trade with pro tools Fast execution, robust charts, clean risk ￰0￱ account → The four-year crypto cycle is no longer a reliable timing rule for Bitcoin; Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin cycles are driven primarily by monetary policy — USD and Chinese yuan liquidity — not halving ￰1￱ US and Chinese easing make this cycle structurally different and potentially ￰2￱ policy, not halvings, now drives Bitcoin ￰3￱ liquidity expansion and Chinese policy shifts reduce the chance of a cycle-ending deflationary ￰4￱ odds and Fed moves (CME futures pricing) point to further rate cuts this year, supporting risk assets including Bitcoin.

four-year crypto cycle analysis: Bitcoin cycles now follow monetary policy flows—learn why easing in the US and China may extend the ￰5￱ on for data and key takeaways. , "description": "Arthur Hayes argues Bitcoin cycles follow monetary policy flows (USD and yuan) rather than fixed four-year timing; US and Chinese easing make the current cycle atypical." , BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin cycles are shaped by USD and yuan liquidity rather than rigid four-year timing, and that current US and Chinese policy moves make this cycle materially ￰6￱ the four-year crypto cycle dead? The four-year crypto cycle as a strict timing rule is no longer ￰7￱ Hayes argues Bitcoin cycles respond to changes in the money supply — especially US dollar and Chinese yuan liquidity — and that current policy easing makes this phase distinct from prior ￰8￱ does monetary policy drive Bitcoin cycles?

Bitcoin’s major rallies historically coincided with periods of ample liquidity. Short-term spikes often follow central-bank easing, mortgage and bank liquidity flows, or Chinese credit expansion. Conversely, past cycle endings aligned with global tightening and reduced credit ￰9￱ makes the current cycle different? Hayes highlights several structural differences this cycle: Large Treasury operations: The US Treasury has moved liquidity via Reverse Repo reductions and Treasury bill issuance, shifting cash into ￰10￱ monetary easing signals: Fed rate cuts are being priced in by futures markets, increasing expected USD ￰11￱ policy pivot: Beijing appears focused on ending deflation and preventing credit contraction, which limits the deflationary headwind that stopped prior ￰12￱ and lending changes: Deregulation and policies to boost bank lending can further amplify ￰13￱ do market signals indicate now?

Futures markets price high odds of additional Fed cuts later this ￰14￱ expectations imply easier dollar conditions and greater risk ￰15￱ notes that if both US and Chinese policy tilt neutral-to-easing, there is less force to terminate a Bitcoin rally via simultaneous liquidity ￰16￱ have previous cycles differed by driver? Cycle Primary driver Why it ended 2011–2013 US QE + Chinese credit expansion Fed & Chinese slowdown of money printing 2015 (ICO cycle) Yuan credit explosion Chinese credit deceleration and tighter dollar conditions 2020–2021 (COVID-era) USD liquidity surge Fed tightening from late 2021 COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup Clear control for futures Sizing, stops, and scenario planning ￰17￱ futures account → When the economic pressure proves too intense, Chinese policymakers print money, says Arthur Hayes.