Analyst Says Bitcoin Price Is Following 2022 Playbook, But In Reverse; Here’s How

Crypto analyst Cristian Chifoi says the Bitcoin price action is repeating 2022 cycle patterns, but only in ￰0￱ then, the US Federal Reserve (FED) rate hikes triggered a staggering 63% crash in the BTC ￰1￱ with the FED preparing to end Quantitative Tightening (QT), Chifoi believes the same macro setup could push prices in the opposite direction, potentially marking the start of Bitcoin’s next major ￰2￱ Price Traces 2022 Cycle Pattern In Reverse Chifoi explained on X social media on November 2 that Bitcoin’s behaviour appears to be replaying the 2022 macroeconomic environment in ￰3￱ in March 2022, he noted that when the FED first announced aggressive rate hikes, the Bitcoin price was trending near $46,000.

As the US central bank delivered its initial two hikes of 50 and 75 basis points by June that year, BTC collapsed to $17,000, marking the technical bottom of that ￰4￱ the FED continued to hike from a total of 175 to 550 bps, the market had already absorbed the ￰5￱ revealed that Bitcoin had entered its accumulation phase and began to reverse upward even as other market experts labeled the central bank’s actions “irresponsible” and ￰6￱ forward to the present, Chifoi believes that the cycle is now ￰7￱ the FED recently announcing the end of Quantitative Tightening by December, he predicts that the next three-month window could trigger a powerful bullish surge that could drive Bitcoin to a top rather than a ￰8￱ points to late December through January 20, 2026, as the key period to watch, suggesting that the crypto market could rally sharply before entering a cooling phase as liquidity fully ￰9￱ Spikes And Repo Signals Support Thesis Supporting his analysis, Chifoi referenced a post made by another analyst known as ‘ChurchOfTheCycle,’ who shared a telling FRED chart showing a surge in Overnight Repurchase Agreements —Treasury securities temporarily purchased by the FED in open market ￰10￱ chart, which spans from 2000 to 2025, highlights a sudden and substantial spike in repo activity, suggesting potential liquidity injections into the financial ￰11￱ analyst noted that this spike alone does not guarantee a market crash , as historically such increases have typically provided a short-term boost for equities and ￰12￱ further noted that the FED’s recent actions indicate stress in the financial system and an early stage of liquidity support , which could push speculative assets ￰13￱ on this, the analyst predicts that the market could still enter a parabolic phase from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026 before facing a major crash in 2026, roughly 6-12 months from the time of his post on November ￰14￱ a precaution, he warns traders to monitor credit spreads, repo activity levels, and VIX correlation for early signs of tightening liquidity.