4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Is a ‘Big Misunderstanding’ – PlanB

The creator of the Bitcoin stock-to-flow model has started to question his own creation and the relevance of four-year market ￰0￱ think $126,000 was the top, and BTC will fall below $100,000, and 2026 will be a bear market mainly because of the four-year cycle, he observed before adding: “IMO that is a BIG misunderstanding.” There have been four-year cycles that revolve around the Bitcoin halving, “But three cycles are not enough for a reliable pattern,” he ￰1￱ is also “absolutely not guaranteed” that the top is again 18 months after the previous halving, which is now in ￰2￱ Cycle Is Different … Or Is It? The analyst then suggested that the cycle top could very well be in 2026, or 2027, or 2028.

“Actually, I am much more interested in the average price level than the top (or the bottom),” he said. “What I do know is: there has not been a fundamental Bitcoin phase transition yet in this cycle,” he continued. “Either the big jump has yet to come, or we have transitioned into a more stable price regime, dominated by institutions, fund mandates, and rebalancing … Both scenarios are very bullish for Bitcoin.” Bears think $126k was the top, and btc will fall below $100k, and 2026 will be a bear market mainly because … the 4 year cycle!? IMO that is a BIG misunderstanding.

Yes, there is a 4y halving cycle that doubles S2F-ratio, and 6 months before until 18 months after a halving was… ￰3￱ — PlanB (@100trillionUSD) October 20, 2025 ‘PlanB’ is not the only analyst who thinks the bull market has longer to ￰4￱ Woo observed that the liquidity driving the cycle top of the last bull market came from from paper derivative markets, which is a short term instrument. “This cycle is shaping up ￰5￱ has already started dropping away, while longer term spot liquidity is holding up for now.” When Bitcoin dropped below $104,000 last week, many feared a bear market had just begun and were wishing for the price to go up a bit more so that they could just exit at a decent level, said analyst ‘Rekt Capital.’ They added that “people feel differently about price now,” after the recovery, but that was posted before today’s ￰6￱ Price Tanks Again Bitcoin has tanked more than 3% over the past few hours, crashing back to $107,700 during the Tuesday morning Asian trading ￰7￱ appears to have hit support around the critical $108,000 level and the plunge had stopped there at the time of ￰8￱ remains clear is that crypto markets are still very jittery and need some solid fundamentals to get the boost that analysts are looking for.