$140K Or Bust? Simulation Says Bitcoin’s Odds Are Now 50-50

According to economist Timothy Peterson, Bitcoin has a 50% chance of topping $140,000 before the month ￰0￱ posted that likelihood on X and backed it with simulation work that uses a decade of price moves to map likely ￰1￱ Reading: Bitcoin Breaks $126K — Bitwise CIO Sees $1 Trillion Wave Coming Simulation Based On Historical Data Peterson said the model runs hundreds of simulations using daily Bitcoin prices going back to ￰2￱ on those runs, he put the chance Bitcoin finishes the month above $140,000 at 50%. He also gave a 43% probability that the price will end the month below $136k. At the time he spoke, Bitcoin was trading at $121,200. That means a rise of about 11% would be needed to reach $140,000 from the current ￰3￱ of Bitcoin’s October gains may have already happened, according to this AI ￰4￱ is a 50% chance Bitcoin finishes the month above $140k But there is a 43% chance Bitcoin finishes below $136k.

pic. twitter. com/LPhFr0mry9 — Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) October 7, 2025 Bitcoin set a fresh all-time high of $126,200 on Monday, then cooled ￰5￱ coin began October at roughly $116,500, so the month has already produced ￰6￱ to data, October has been the second-best month on average since 2013, with typical gains of 20%. Reports have disclosed that November is the strongest month historically, averaging 46% gains since ￰7￱ Human Emotion Peterson described his forecast as driven by data rather than human ￰8￱ said each projection follows price changes that mirror Bitcoin’s past volatility and ￰9￱ approach aims to remove bias from short-term sentiment.

Still, there are limits to what historical simulations can ￰10￱ has sometimes moved in ways that did not match past ￰11￱ reactions, policy moves, and other forces can push prices off the script that history ￰12￱ Sentiment Remains Bullish Other analysts on social platforms urged continued optimism after the recent ￰13￱ analyst said the market was retesting prior highs and could move ￰14￱ wrote that pressure was building for further ￰15￱ views sit alongside data-led forecasts and are being watched by traders and ￰16￱ is the new hurdle ￰17￱ you can’t beat it, you have to buy it. I explained on @SquawkCNBC this morning why so many investors are not producing the returns they think they ￰18￱ — Anthony Pompliano 🌪 (@APompliano) October 7, 2025 Macro Notes From A Prominent Investor Reports have also carried comments from Anthony Pompliano, who argued on CNBC that Bitcoin’s rally can continue if governments and central banks keep printing ￰19￱ IN: Anthony Pompliano tells CNBC Bitcoin will never stop going up.

“They will never stop printing money.” ￰20￱ — Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive) October 7, 2025 His view links monetary policy to Bitcoin demand, and it is widely shared among supporters who see the asset as a ￰21￱ Reading: All Eyes On Solana: $15-B Stablecoin Supply, ETF Demand Drive Next Leg Up Featured image from Verdict, chart from TradingView