USBC's Bitcoin Exposure And Pre-Launch Platform Risks Remain High

Summary USBC shifted from Know Labs’ legacy medtech identity to a tokenized bank-deposit and Bitcoin-treasury model. However, so far, commercialization plans remain in the “pre-launch” stage and are highly dependent on stellar execution. USBC’s Vast Bank and Uphold tri-party agreement defines roles across issuance, onboarding, and network operations. But remember that ultimately, adoption hinges on regulatory clearance and a successful technical rollout. USBC’s “updated” valuation also appears somewhat rich after adjusting for Bitcoin’s recent decline. So, overall, I still rate it a “Hold” despite their lofty ambitions. USBC, Inc. ( USBC ) is a tokenized bank-deposit network and Bitcoin-treasury firm that also maintains a legacy non-invasive sensing program from Know Labs. USBC is still advancing with an agreement with Vast Bank, N.A., and Uphold. In the platform, USBC is responsible for network operations, while on the other hand, Vast manages bank issuance. Finally, Uphold will handle distribution and customer onboarding. However, so far, the general launch for the platform hasn’t yet been announced, and substantial uncertainties in their roadmap remain. Thus, I ultimately lean towards a “Hold” position at these levels despite their grander visions with blockchain technology. Platform Pending USBC, Inc. is technically a digital-finance and Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) treasury company. However, they still hold their legacy non-invasive sensing program from Know Labs as a side asset. The company has been listed on the NYSE American as Know Labs (KNW) since September 2022. It rebranded to the new ticker USBC in August 2025 following the change-of-control executed by Goldeneye 1995 LLC (an affiliate of Greg Kidd). USBC is headquartered in Reno, Nevada. I previously covered USBC in September last year and touched on some of those points. Yet, since then, the stock has declined by roughly 49.2%, so I thought it was worthwhile updating my analysis. Source: X post by @USBCxyz, accessed February 2026. You see, as a quick recap, USBC basically offers a tokenized bank deposit network, which is a tokenized representation of a real bank deposit. This is a fundamentally different approach to a typical reserve-backed stablecoin issued by an entity that is not a bank. After all, this strategy differs from a reserve-backed stablecoin (which is essentially synthetic dollars issued by fintechs). Therefore, the USBC token isn’t really a digital asset backed by reserves. Instead, it’s better to think about their crypto asset as a bank-deposit representation in the blockchain. Moreover, their network can operate across banks and distribution partners (on paper). They also describe their ecosystem as capable of handling rules and controls designed to make it usable for real-world payments and faster settlements. Their token system is also going to have an embedded digital identity that verifies ownership and transfers using Know Your Customer (KYC)-style compliance. So, in principle, it does seem like USBC’s token will have several interesting differentiators compared to other typical stablecoins. And, more importantly, it seems like they’re designing it with regulatory compliance as a prime directive. Bitcoin Treasury And Partnership On top of that, USBC is also a Bitcoin treasury company , which means that it holds Bitcoin as a major corporate asset like cash or marketable securities. In this type of business model, companies tend to treat Bitcoin as a “strategic reserve,” which can pay off nicely if Bitcoin appreciates over time. This model also has its benefits, as treasury companies can often receive loans against their Bitcoin to raise capital, or simply sell some of it if needed, as it’s a highly liquid asset. Yet, more importantly, USBC not only holds Bitcoin but also uses it as a managed strategy that produces additional Bitcoin through Bitcoin yield mechanisms. This is the more speculative part of their strategy, as it does involve mechanisms like options premiums (for example, covered calls backed by their Bitcoin). Source: X post by @USBCxyz, accessed February 2026. However, in principle, covered calls tend to be pretty low risk. They only cap the upside potential, and the downside risk of the underlying asset is offset by the premium USBC receives. Yet, if they start doing more fancy option strategies (like iron condors or butterflies), it could expose investors to much higher tail risk. Aside from these strategies, USBC can also simply resort to lending or financing yields through counterparties that may pay interest in Bitcoin (or in cash that USBC immediately uses to purchase more Bitcoin). With that in mind, note that by January 2026, USBC signed a binding tri-party agreement with exclusivity with Vast Bank, N.A., and Uphold. The overview of the deal is as follows. First, Vast Bank provides financial services for tokenized bank deposits. Then, Uphold is the channel through which customers can participate, functioning as the distribution and onboarding platform to turn users into compliant participants. Uphold’s contributions include identity verification (KYC), risk screening for anti-money laundering (AML) that potentially can cover fraud checks, account opening, and user experience and customer service. And lastly, USBC operates the tokenized deposit network that defines the tokenized deposit instrument. USBC would also help with records and regulate transfer/ownership changes. In other words, USBC will function as the infrastructure layer of the network and also connect with the issuing bank’s deposit accounting framework. Valuation And Risk Analysis Now, from a valuation perspective, USBC currently trades at a $179.5 million market cap after a substantial decline of 49% since September 29, 2025. Naturally, Bitcoin has also declined considerably since September 29, 2025 , by about 39% in fact. So in many ways, we could largely attribute USBC’s pullback to Bitcoin’s correction. Source: Seeking Alpha Charts. After all, USBC’s latest 10-K shows they hold about 1.0 thousand Bitcoin, which at its current price of $70.3 thousand per token, implies USBC has roughly $70.3 million worth of Bitcoin today. However, the 10-K’s cutoff date was September 2025, and at the time, they valued their Bitcoin holdings at approximately $115.4 million. So, on this item alone, I estimate they have an unrealized loss since then of about $45.1 million. Aside from that, they have $8.8 million in cash and equivalents against negligible financial debt (though they do have regular operating liabilities). Additionally, remember that by September 2025, USBC’s book value stood at $97.1 million . But, after adjusting for the recent decline in the price of Bitcoin, I calculate their “updated” book value is closer to $52.0 million. This would mean USBC’s P/B is roughly 3.5, which, compared to its peers’ median P/B of 2.8, still implies a moderate premium relative to its sector. Source: USBC’s whitepaper. Moreover, I also estimate they burned through another $3.1 million in cash during Q3 alone. Note that I got this figure by simply adding its quarterly cash flows from operations and CAPEX. That would imply a yearly cash burn rate of around $12.4 million, which is worrisome if you only consider their cash holdings (equivalent to approximately 2.8 quarters of runway). Of course, USBC can theoretically use its Bitcoin to extend such a runway if needed (either by selling it or using it as collateral for loans). Yet, it’s nonetheless another clear risk worth flagging in my view. That’s why, at this point, USBC’s prospects truly rest for the most part on their recent tri-party partnership I previously mentioned. Nevertheless, even though this agreement sounds promising on paper, the reality is that there are still some uncertainties. After all, the outcomes from this agreement will largely depend on regulatory approvals. And, even if it’s fully approved as it stands today, USBC and its partners still have to reach technical milestones and successfully go ahead with the program’s launch to the general public. Unfortunately, we still don’t have a concrete date for any launch. We really only have their whitepaper for now, so bear in mind that this remains a highly speculative thesis at this stage. Plus, according to the partnership’s contract , the parties will be bound by exclusivity terms starting from the general launch and until the agreement terminates. And, Uphold must treat USBC and Vast as its exclusive tokenized deposit partners, and USBC and Vast cannot use other cryptoexchanges or market makers for this program besides Uphold. This means USBC seems pretty much “all in” on their speculative vision for their new stablecoin, and if this fails, it could lead to substantial shareholder losses. Source: X post by @USBCxyz, accessed February 2026. Lastly, it’s also worth mentioning that regulatory approvals may include a set of bank supervisory requirements, compliance with applicable laws , such as AML and KYC. This is obviously an extremely complicated regulatory framework, which can even expose USBC to unexpected risks like trade sanctions if they don’t navigate carefully. Additionally, there are consumer protection constraints if their end product behaves like a retail deposit and payment account. And, on Uphold’s side, it has to function according to jurisdictional permissions that may vary in the locations where the platform can offer the services. Conclusion: Still Too Speculative To Be Bullish Overall, I continue to think that USBC’s vision for their stablecoin sounds good on paper. Something like the USBC token could very well become an important part of the future of consumer finance and transacting. However, it’s clearly a very ambitious roadmap, which I think remains in its infancy, and executing it may very well take much longer than investors would like. On top of that, their cash runway (excluding Bitcoin) seems a bit tight at this point, which, coupled with their valuation multiples, nudges me towards a neutral rating on the stock. So, putting it all together, I don’t think there’s a strong bull case yet, which is why I ultimately rate USBC a “Hold” at these levels.