ETHT: Is This A Good Entry Point For 2x Daily Ether Exposure?

Summary ProShares Ultra Ether ETF provides 2x leveraged daily exposure to Ethereum via swaps and futures, suitable only for tactical, short-term trades. Current market signals suggest capitulation and a potential bottom, but waiting for confirmation from this and next week's closes is prudent before entry. ETF net flows indicate institutional conviction remains, with declining outflows and persistent accumulation, despite recent price corrections. Recommended tactical entry is upon support validation, targeting a take-profit range of $2,400–$2,800; avoid action if support breaks. Investment Thesis ETHT is an instrument to gain x2 leveraged exposure to the movements of the cryptocurrency Ethereum. Since this ETF is interesting to capture short-term upswings and upward trends, we have looked from different points of view to conclude that although I believe we are facing capitulation and market floor, it is prudent to wait for confirmations before making any move. In the article, we highlight two possible scenarios and which entry and take-profit levels we would execute the trade. ETF Overview ProShares Ultra Ether ETF (ETHT) is a fund that offers us x2 exposure to the cryptocurrency Ethereum, through swaps and futures contracts; that is, they do not acquire Ethereum directly. In their documentation, they clearly define that their goal is to maintain that x2 exposure regardless of the direction and performance of the underlying, using the Bloomberg Ethereum Index as a benchmark: if the asset rises by 1% at daily close, the fund's goal is to rise by about 2% and vice versa . Also, given that the rebalances are daily, the objective x2 is not guaranteed in the long term, being limited to one day. At the time of writing, the NAV is $203,647,764.20, and they have a Net Expense Ratio of 0.94%. Fund Summary Prospectus (Fund Web) Fund Summary Prospectus (Fund Web) To achieve this exposure, it primarily uses OTC Swaps and Ether Futures Contracts in its operation. Fund Summary Prospectus (Fund Web) Similarly, they comment that as additional support to achieve their objectives, they describe that they will generally transform part of the cash into liquid monetary instruments such as T-Bills and Repurchase Agreements, to use them as collateral and at the same time support with interest the performance of the fund. ETHT Holdings (Fund Web) If we look at their current holdings, we see that on the balance sheet they have two swap positions with Nomura and Goldman, and an Ethereum futures contract in CME. Together, both swaps make up 131.38% of the notional amount, while the futures contract represents the remaining 68.63%, which in total adds up to 200% in accordance with the fund's daily exposure target. The idea of using a mix of swaps and futures seems to me to be typical of good operational management because we see managers reduce concentration risks in a single maturity, diversify counterparty risk, and reduce the roll-basis cost of futures contracts. ETHT Dividend Yield (Seeking Alpha) Although it is not their main objective, and they state that it is not mandatory and they do not mention any specific objective, in order to maintain the RIC tax classification, the fund has to distribute dividends. Fund Summary Prospectus (Fund Web) In this case, they mention that if there is income from there, it will be distributed monthly, while capital gains will be distributed annually. Given the characteristics of the fund, it is clear that it is a vehicle to use tactically and capture sudden movements and/or upward trends in the short term but not as an instrument to hold. That said, the current market situation invites me in this analysis to assess whether it is a good time to make a tactical entry. To determine if this moment can be a capitulation and that from now on there can be a short-term upside reversal, we will then review the Ethereum price momentum, recent movements in related ETFs, the situation in derivatives, and what the on-chain data tells us. Ethereum Analysis Price ETH Spot Price Weekly (Trading View) In the graph above, we have the evolution of the Ethereum price in a weekly timeframe. Since it peaked in August 2025, to this day it is recorded that the price has reversed all the rise of the months of June, July, and August; therefore, it seems that the worst would have already passed, there is not much more downward path. Having said that, the reading of the current situation (based solely on the price factor) that I see is as follows: Ethereum is currently in a support zone and if you see some more correction, I would estimate it to be around 10-15% to "fill" what is left of that gap from the candle of the first week of May 2025. This would put the price in the range of approximately $1,900-$2,000. On the other hand, we currently have a gap recently formed between last week and the current one (not yet confirmed until it closes this week) between $2,400-$2,800, which the price will tend to fill in the future. With all this, I think the current moment is to wait to see this and next week’s close, and if in both the closes are above support, I would dismiss the scenario of falling to $1,900-$2,000 and validate that bounce that would fill the gap above, so it would be a good time to perform a tactical entry with take profit between $2,400 and $2,800. However, in the case of breaking support, I would not be surprised to see an increase in volatility, a rapid fall and that leaves a form of "v" drawing a weekly candle with spike. In this scenario, the entry would be at $1900, or you could wait for it to validate the support again to enter. ETFs NetFlows ETH NetfFlows (Glassnode) The price is fine but let's see what the flows in the ETFs tell us. In the image above , we have the net flow of Ethereum ETFs in monthly temporality for the last 12 months measured in Ethereum currency and not in dollars. The June-August surge coincides with the "massive" inflow of inflows from those dates, and the correction begins when demand seems to disappear from institutional investors. Since then, there were two neutral months with a somewhat positive bias before the first major corrective move. However, the volume of coins, that is, the amount of Ethereum that has been sold is much lower than total inflows of entry, which suggests that there has been a clear profit taking along with other macro, political, market mechanics, etc. factors that have contributed their "grain of sand" perpetuating the fall, but at the same time suggests that a large part of the ethereums acquired remain unsold, which to me means that the conviction and confidence of these investors in the protocol and the currency remains intact. On the other hand, the negative trend in the last three months is decreasing, with sales volumes of currencies on a declining trend, another factor that indicates to me symptoms of supply depletion leading to a new trend of accumulation and revaluation of assets. Derivatives Liquidity Map Derivatives Liquidity Map (Coinglass) We continue with an image that shows us the possible liquidation levels for the ETH/USDT pair in the CEX Binance, with a history of 3 months in 6h. When the color is more yellow, it means that at that point there is the highest concentration, in USDT volume, of liquidation of leveraged positions in perpetual contracts. Recently, we see how the fall on January 31 "wiped out" a large number of leveraged positions and virtually the entire cluster by such levels. This could lead us to think that the price can stabilize, trade sideways or go up to liquidate the cluster that is being created at the higher levels. Derivatives Liquidity Map (Coinglass) However, if we extend to one year, we can see how in the $2,000 range there are 5.5B of dollars. This would fit with the theory, from the point of view of the technical analysis, that we previously commented on closing that gap $,2000-$1,900. So, while there have been major liquidations recently, "the worst" may be yet to come. However, it cannot be ruled out that a large amount of liquidity would be needed to liquidate that level, and therefore the other scenario of it acting as a support may also occur. Having said that, the best thing will be to wait for the price to finally settle, it will be a reversal that validates the support and enter there, or, on the contrary, during the following weeks, the support is validated and we see green shoots that bring the price to the range of $2,400-$2,800. Onchain TVL ETH TVL (Defillama) From a more fundamental point of view, we have to note that the TVL (Total Value Locked) of the number of ETH coins has been on an upward trend since August 2025. This is very positive because despite the negative price momentum, the trust in the network remains intact and continues to accumulate Ethereum in staking protocols, which again suggests a great trust in the network its development and assumes a belief in the revaluation of the asset in the future. Fear & Greed Fear&Greed (Coin Market Cap) Added to previous ideas, I like to look at levels of fear and greed because in context with other factors, it can help us to determine trends. Currently, the moment is extremely bearish, there is much fear and as Warren Buffett said in attribution to Baron Rothschild: "Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own." It's not a perfect indicator (none are) but with this, what I want to add is some more context to the situation, and that is the second time in a short space of time that we find ourselves in these levels of fear, but with other data suggesting that the worst is over and the situation is closer to reversing. What is clear is that upward trends are not born of euphoria. Conclusion ETHT is still an instrument to use tactically and not to hold. To determine if the current momentum accompanies such entry, we have analyzed different points of view, and the conclusion I reach is that the signs of capitulation are evident, large futures positions have been liquidated, sentiment is extremely bearish, and the trend in the outflows of the ETFs is decreasing. However, there is a possibility of another "earthquake" happening, so the current recommendation is not to implement any action and wait for this and the next weekly close. In this way, act accordingly with speculative entry at the above levels and keep the take profit target in the range of $2,400-$2,800.