Canary XRP ETF: A Clean, Spot-Based Approach To XRP Exposure

Summary XRPC provides direct spot exposure to XRP, avoiding futures roll costs, leverage decay, and structural drag common in other XRP exchange-traded products. Early asset growth positions XRPC as a leading spot XRP ETF, with liquidity stabilizing quickly following launch despite a short operating history. XRPC's spot structure allows performance to closely track XRP's price, making it suitable for investors seeking long-term exposure through traditional brokerage accounts. Ongoing institutional upgrades to the XRP Ledger support XRP's role as payments and settlement infrastructure rather than as a purely speculative asset. Growing stablecoin and tokenized asset activity on the XRP Ledger may sustain institutional interest and contribute to XRP demand and volatility over time. Investment Thesis I rate Canary XRP ETF (XRPC) a strong buy for those seeking exposure to the cryptocurrency XRP ( XRP-USD ) in a traditional market since it is an efficient and structurally sound method of gaining long-term exposure to XRP. By holding XRP directly via a spot structure, XRPC avoids the features such as roll costs, daily resets, and decays that cause other XRP ETFs, many of which are futures- or leveraged-based, to underperform. Although the fund has a short operating history, the ETF has a 0.50% fee, and its yet-improving liquidity makes it an efficient wrapper around an asset that, for various reasons , I believe is entering a stage of increasing adoption and valuation. And, over the next 12 months, XRPC's performance will no doubt be driven by both XRP's spot price and post-launch ETF flows, growing institutional usage of the XRP Ledger (per the latest State of the XRP Ledger for Q3 2025), and expanding activity in both stablecoins and tokenized assets—all catalysts that should influence both demand and volatility for XRP and, consequently, XRPC. The Basics: Fund Structure, Mechanics, and Performance Fund Structure XRPC is a spot XRP trust that was created to provide direct exposure to XRP less the Trust's fees and operating expenses and holds XRP as its primary asset with only limited cash positions that are used for operational purposes, such as expenses or creation and redemption activity. According to the XRPC Prospectus , the Trust does not operate as a traditional '40 Act ETF but is rather structured as a grantor trust and, thereby, treats the investor as if they own XRP directly. Holdings Table (XRP Canary ETF Website) Mechanics The net asset value [NAV] is calculated one time per trading day, after the market closes at 4:00 p.m. EST, and, to determine NAV, Canary Capital uses the CME XRP-USD Reference Rate. The total value of the Trust's XRP holdings, after all the accrued fees and expenses are accounted for, is then divided by the number of shares outstanding, which then gives Canary Capital their daily NAV. Also, during the trading day, XRPC publishes an indicative value, which is provided by CoinDesk Indices , that updates frequently as XRP moves throughout the day, no doubt important to investors given that it serves as a real-time reference point for where the Trust's shares should, in theory, be trading. This mechanism is what helps to keep the market price of XRPC aligned with the underlying value of XRP, although it is worth saying that temporary premiums or discounts can still occur, especially when there are periods of heightened volatility. Performance Finally, because the Trust holds XRP directly, as opposed to using derivatives or leverage, XRPC's performance is primarily driven by movements in XRP's spot price, adjusted for fees of course, without the roll costs or tracking distortions that investors commonly find in other derivatives-based crypto products—as we'll see below—with our XRP ETF peer comparisons. XRPC was launched just over a month ago on November 13 , so its public trading history is still limited. Thus, we don't have enough data to draw solid conclusions as to how the trust performs across varying market conditions or varying trading environments, but what is important is to note that XRPC's market behavior should simply be viewed as a reflection of XRP's general price movements, albeit with near-term volatility found and influenced by ETF-related headlines in combination with adoption milestones and catalysts found on the XRPL, as discussed below. Peer Comparison: How XRPC Differs From Other XRP ETFs XRPC is but one of the more recent XRP ETFs; however, much of the current XRP ETF market consists of derivative-based products. Thus, below are peer comparisons to just some of these other XRP ETFs. XRPI When it comes to unlevered alternatives in the XRP ETF marketplace, the most comparable one is XRPI (XRPI), which tracks XRP using CME futures as opposed to holding the asset directly, as in the case of XRPC. And XRPI's futures structure means that, since these futures must be rolled over time (i.e., expiring futures contracts must be sold and new ones must be bought the next month with these futures contracts trading at a premium to XRP's current spot price, thereby eating into returns), returns can, and sometimes will, often lag and, thus, underperform XRP itself . And we can see this effect in the YCharts below, with XRPI underperforming XRPC by one percentage point in the last month of trading. Data by YCharts XRPT and XXRP Meanwhile, we also have leveraged XRP ETFs, such as XRPT (XRPT) and XXRP (XXRP). However, since these are leveraged ETFs built for 2x exposure, they should only be seen as short-term tactical investments and not as long-term investments. Nevertheless, both ETFs aim to give investors XRP's daily moves multiplied by two using futures or swaps , the catch being that they reset their exposure every trading session and, thus, make them unsuitable for holding past short windows of time because these daily resets will erode returns even in a short period of time. We can see this effect in the YCharts below, with both of these 2x leveraged ETFs underperforming XRPC by approximately 11 to 12 percentage points in the last month. The only time these leveraged ETFs outperformed XRPC was in short periods in late November and early December when the price of XRP hovered and stayed above the $2.20 price range. Data by YCharts What Makes XRPC Different As we can see, what makes XRPC different is not only that it is the first spot XRP ETF but also that it holds XRP directly as opposed to relying on futures, swaps, or leverage, as noted in the ETFs above. Thus, the drawbacks of daily resets, roll costs, structural decay, and so forth that are tied to derivatives are nonexistent with XRPC, meaning that, over time, XRPC's performance should more closely reflect XRP's spot price, minus fees, especially important if the adoption catalysts referred to below begin to play out over multiple-month horizons as opposed to short, tactical windows. In sum, this ETF trades complexity for convenience for investors who are looking for straightforward, long-term exposure to XRP without the drag from leverage or futures. Costs and Liquidity XRPC has a net expense ratio of 0.50%, which is both standard and in line with the median for all ETF fees, per Seeking Alpha 's data, with liquidity stabilizing fairly quickly after its first month of trading with a notable 0.15% bid/ask spread that almost matches the median 0.14% for the ETF market. This is good news for investors since they are not paying a meaningful liquidity penalty to access spot XRP exposure. XRPC ETF Expenses (Seeking Alpha) 12-Month Outlook: Three Potential Catalysts There are three major catalysts that I believe will drive both XRPC's price and XRP's demand and volatility in the next 12 months: 1. Post-Launch Flows, Fee Compression, and Liquidity Share Capture As of now, there are three other spot XRP ETFs that have gone live: Bitwise XRP ETF (XRP), Franklin XRP ETF (XRPZ), and Grayscale XRP Trust (GXRP). So the first of the 2026 drivers becomes which of these four wins in assets and liquidity, and investors should expect competition in areas such as fees, spread compression, and AUM concentration into the products that can achieve the better combination of cost, execution, and distribution. All that to say, in other words, that XRPC's success in the next six to twelve months depends less on being a spot ETF and more on whether the investment can become, within its category, the most liquid and lowest-friction way to trade XRP in a traditional brokerage account. Comparison Table of Spot XRP ETFs (Seeking Alpha) Via the inserted screenshots, we can see that, as of now, XRPC has attracted the largest asset base among its competitors, with approximately $336 million in assets compared to the lower AUM levels among its competitors. Its first-mover advantage in the spot XRP marketplace has resulted in a higher AUM, though it is worth pointing out that it is also the highest of the four in expense ratios, which suggests—to me at least—that fees are not yet the dominant driver of investor behavior in the early stages of this category because investors are instead prioritizing liquidity, familiarity, and early availability over fee levels—all elements XRPC has taken advantage of. And whether this early lead proves durable will depend on XRPC's trading depth and competitive spreads as the fee competition continues to intensify in 2026. Data by YCharts 2. Institutional-Grade XRPL Upgrades The most recent state of the XRP Ledger for Q3 2025 emphasized a clear, strategic direction for the XRPL: making the network usable for regulated financial institutions. There are new features being rolled out, such as allowing users to verify identity, enforce compliance rules, and even manage permissions directly on the XRPL—changes that are absolutely huge for XRP because it is moving XRP from a speculative cryptoasset to a more serious payments and settlement infrastructure. And if these upgrades continue online as planned, then the XRPL will no doubt become a more attractive platform for banks, custodians, and tokenization providers—all of which support more sustained institutional interest in XRP as an asset over time that, necessarily, spills over into XRPC. 3. Expansion of Stablecoins and Tokenized Assets on the XRPL Per the same state of the XRP Ledger report for Q3, activity on the ledger continued to build, with the report noting both higher transaction volumes and a growing number of active users along with an increased issuance of stablecoins and tokenized RWAs (i.e., real-world assets)—an important trend for XRPC because both stablecoins and tokenized treasuries are becoming vital parts of modern digital finance. Should the XRPL continue to attract regulated dollar-backed stablecoins and tokenized credit, or even treasury products for that matter, then I believe it will deepen the network's relevance for institutional holders and help to keep XRP as part of the broader conversation of financial infrastructure. Key Risks XRP Price Risk Since XRPC holds XRP directly, XRPC is completely susceptible to the price swings of XRP, and losses in XRP mean losses in XRPC. There are no diversification or income components to the ETF to offset any potential declines. A Short Trading History As mentioned above, XRPC was launched just last month, so we investors have only a short performance record and, therefore, limited data as to how the ETF will perform during, say, long periods of market stress or even extreme volatility. Premium and Discount Risk As seen in the premium/discount chart below, XRPC has traded both above and below NAV (though deviations on both sides have been modest), so investors may still pay more than the underlying when they buy or even receive less when they sell, and this is even more true when there are periods of high volatility. Premium/Discount Chart (XRP Canary ETF Website) Tracking Differences The YCharts below illustrates how XRP has declined more than XRPC in the last month, albeit the difference was small—approximately 2.5 percentage points. This highlights the daily NAV calculation noted above, as well as market pricing and the timing effects that can cause short-term differences even if the structure of the ETF is spot-based, as in the case of XRPC. Data by YCharts Catalyst Timing Risk Even if we suppose that our longer-term adoption described above remains intact, the timing of regulatory decisions, institutional product and feature rollouts on the XRPL, and general ecosystem growth for XRP can be uneven. If these catalysts are delayed, or even if market sentiment deteriorates, then XRPC can, of course, experience sharp downturns even if there are no changes in XRP's long-term usage. Regulatory Risk Of course, we can't complete this section on key risks without mentioning the fact that, despite XRP's recent legal clarity , there is always the potential for future regulatory challenges that could affect XRP, potentially impacting its liquidity, its demand, its exchange access, and thus, by extension, XRPC. Conclusion In conclusion, the Canary XRP ETF is a clean way of gaining long-term XRP exposure via an ETF wrapper. Its spot structure allows potential returns to mirror that of XRP itself without the roll costs, daily resets, or structural decay seen in other ETFs, and though it has a short operating history, its 0.50% expense ratio, early asset growth, and stabilizing liquidity make it both competitive among its other spot XRP ETF rivals and efficient for any investor seeking XRP exposure through a traditional brokerage account. For investors who are bullish on XRP's adoption and valuation in both the near term and the long term, such as myself, XRPC stands out as a high-quality option that is currently available via the public markets.