Bullish: Forgotten Hot Crypto IPO

Summary Bullish trades below its IPO price despite strong institutional crypto catalysts and robust Q4 trading volume growth. The global digital asset platform reported Q4 trading volume reached $223 billion, up 57% sequentially, with options trading and U.S. spot market expansion as key drivers. Subscription and services revenue is forecasted around $50 million for Q4, representing ~250% YoY growth, reducing reliance on volatile trading volumes. The stock only has a $2 billion enterprise value, making Bullish undervalued ahead of its Q4 earnings report, though the stock price is flashing warnings. Bullish ( BLSH ) went public in a hot IPO back in August, but the stock has plunged in the last few months. The weak bitcoin price hasn't helped the stock, but Bullish is now trading below the IPO prices despite major catalysts in the institutional crypto space. My investment thesis remains Bullish on the stock, though one needs to let the stock find a bottom after reporting Q4 results next week. Source: Finviz Monthly Metrics Bullish has only reported a couple of quarterly earnings since going public, so the market is still feeling its way around the important metrics. As with any crypto play, monthly and quarterly trading volumes are very volatile while the company continues to launch new services. The crypto options with 14 partners starting on October 8 and U.S. institutional spot trading only started in September in 20 states, with Bullish securing the NY BitLicense. The company provides monthly trading volumes with Q4 volumes vastly exceeding the prior quarter levels, but the volumes were below the Q1 levels. In total, Bullish did $223 billion in total trading volume for Q4, up 57% from the $142 billion in Q3. Spot trading volume was $205 billion, up from only $130 billion in the prior quarter. Source: Bullish Dec. '25 monthly metrics Bullish fully launched options trading at the end of October and has already reached $6.2 billion in trading volumes for December alone. The crypto options trading should be a big story for 2026, with the company claiming the market size in Q3 was already over $200 billion. The key to the trading volumes is that Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) has traded weak throughout the last quarter and into January. The weaker crypto prices tend to lead to lower trading volumes in the short term, so the start of U.S. spot trading is somewhat being overshadowed by the weaker crypto prices pressuring trading volumes. Source: CoinDesk Since the BitLicense, Bullish onboarded retail brokers like Webull and Moomoo, along with institutional broker Cantor Fitzgerald. The company should be bullish for much higher spot trading volumes in 2026 when crypto rebounds, while the options business should continue expanding. The company recently reported Q3 revenues of $76.5 million when spot trading volumes were substantially weak during the summer months. The consensus analyst estimates forecast Q4 revenues of $86.8 million. The key here is that Bullish is focused on subscription and services. The company reported such revenues of $50 million in Q3 and forecasts a similar amount in Q4 for their Listing Services and branded CoinDesk products. The company isn't reliant on volatile crypto trading volumes for the majority of their revenue. The Q4 SS&O revenue at $50 million would provide ~250% growth from the just under $14 million reported in Q4'24. Bullish forecast Q3 SS&O revenues of $43.5 to $48.0 million and actually hit $49.8 million, suggesting management is likely guiding very conservatively with basically flat SS&O numbers for Q4. Though, the company highlighted some headwinds in Q4 with the seasonal impacts of the holidays and new customer deals lined up towards the end of the quarter set to drive Q1'26 growth. The company forecast opex of only $49 million, so any revenue around the forecast would provide adjusted EBITDA in the $37 million range. Bullish would be on a $150 million annual EBITDA path. The stock has a market cap of $4.5 billion, but the company ended Q3 with $3.5 billion in net liquid assets. The assets are based highly on BTC with a price of $113K, so Bullish will take a substantial hit to these assets in the short term with $2.8 billion of the asset tied to BTC and only $1.3 billion in stablecoins. Source: Bullish Q3'25 presentation Since the company reports on February 5 and Bullish just traded at $30 when the IPO priced at $37 , an investor definitely wants the company to get the Q4 metrics out of the way. The numbers don't suggest such a bad quarter, but investors are clearly worried about Q1 guidance, though Bullish has several growth catalysts. The stock only has an enterprise value in the $2 billion range. Bullish is relatively cheap here, with the 2026 adjusted EBITDA target of $160 million appearing conservative based on Q4 targets. Data by YCharts Naturally, the biggest risk is that crypto prices continue to crash. Bullish would face lower trading volumes, and institutional clients might pull back from using the company for SS&O services. The company is highly profitable already, but the dynamics could change quickly on BTC weakness. Takeaway The key investor takeaway is that Bullish has plunged to $30, offering an opportunity to suddenly buy the institutional crypto business below the IPO price. Investors should watch for a bottom here before getting aggressive, especially with the upcoming earnings report and the weak price action.