Rivian and Lucid are reporting Q3 earnings this week under pressure from higher costs and the loss of federal EV tax credits

Rivian and Lucid entered this week’s third-quarter earnings with investors watching every dollar, every unit, and every forecast ￰0￱ reports after the bell today, and Lucid follows on Wednesday, and both companies expect higher revenue and smaller adjusted losses, helped by what analysts say was likely the peak of ￰1￱ sales before federal credits disappeared in ￰2￱ the bigger story is the pressure ahead: shrinking margins, reduced production guidance, and a policy environment that just made life harder for “pure-EV” ￰3￱ analyst Tom Narayan said, “Both of these are really challenged,” adding that in the near term, “it’s all about the underlying profitability.” That profitability is exactly where the cracks show, because Rivian has already cut expectations for 2025 gross profit and adjusted earnings, while Lucid faces similar margin ￰4￱ of these guys are trying to convince their current and potential investors that they have long-term plans worth sticking around for, but in an era of tight competition, they’re finding that harder than it used to ￰5￱ cuts, tariffs, and changing policy reshape revenue outlooks The Trump administration this fall removed the federal EV purchase incentive of up to $7,500 and also ended penalties for automakers who fall short on fuel-efficiency ￰6￱ Scaringe, Rivian’s CEO, said during the company’s last earnings call that the policy changes are “complex and rapidly evolving,” and will affect both performance and cash ￰7￱ had expected $300 million in regulatory-credit revenue this year; that is now closer to $160 ￰8￱ company also lowered its gross profit forecast from a modest gain to roughly breakeven and carried out layoffs to cut ￰9￱ are adding more ￰10￱ said tariffs are costing the company “a couple thousand dollars per unit.” Lucid reported that tariffs hit its margins by $54 million in the second ￰11￱ Delaney of Goldman Sachs said the loss of Inflation Reduction Act credits could create a “double-digit percent headwind” for industry sales.

Tesla, also a seller of regulatory credits, reported credit revenue dropping 44% in the third quarter, from $739 million to $417 ￰12￱ third quarter was the high-water mark for EV demand before credits ￰13￱ analyst Dan Levy warned that it’s unclear how long the slowdown that follows will last, saying Q3 likely marks “the highest” ￰14￱ market penetration for some ￰15￱ delivered 13,201 vehicles in Q3, a 32% increase from last ￰16￱ delivered 4,078 vehicles, a 47% ￰17￱ both remain ￰18￱ is expected to report a quarterly loss of $0.72 per share on $1.5 billion in revenue, compared to a $0.99 loss on $874 million last ￰19￱ also now projects a core loss between $2 billion and $2.25 billion for ￰20￱ have questioned its goal to reach EBITDA profitability by ￰21￱ is expected to report a $2.27 adjusted per-share loss on $379 million in revenue, nearly 90% growth from last year, but still with a gross loss of $255 million.

Rivian’s expected gross loss is $39 ￰22￱ shares are down less than 5% this ￰23￱ shares are down roughly 45%, after a 1-for-10 reverse ￰24￱ models and tech partnerships aim to prove future demand Rivian is leaning hard on its upcoming R2 midsize vehicle, targeted at roughly $45,000 and scheduled to begin production in the first half of next ￰25￱ many of Rivian’s competitors plan similar-priced midsize EVs with longer ranges, so you get why Wall Street is questioning how many units Rivian can realistically ￰26￱ has a $5.8 billion software and electrical architecture partnership with Volkswagen, and the company has been promising that its next-generation system will support advanced driver-assistance features since at least Q1 2025.

Meanwhile, Lucid’s interim CEO Marc Winterhoff said their upcoming Gravity SUV and a new midsize platform, saying the company is “pushing the boundaries of what EVs can be.” Lucid signed a $300 million deal with Uber in July to deploy 20,000 Gravity SUVs equipped with autonomous technology from Nuro over six ￰27￱ Winterhoff admitted on Tuesday that:- “We are not where we want to be with Lucid Gravity production relative to our target at this point in the ￰28￱ believe we will significantly increase production in the second half of the year.” Get $50 free to trade crypto when you sign up to Bybit now