Powell, The FOMC, And Crypto: The Message Everyone Missed

In a post on X on October 29, Quinn Thompson, CIO of Lekker Capital, argued that Jerome Powell’s post-FOMC messaging was less about macro uncertainty and more about pressure tactics aimed at the political apparatus — with direct consequences for crypto liquidity. Powell’s FOMC Comments Decoded Thompson wrote: “Powell appeared to be playing political games / posturing / CYA around the December verbiage, possibly to communicate to the admin to get the government ￰0￱ almost felt like a threat that if no data (due to continued government shutdown), then there won’t be a December cut and the market was briefly thrown off by that uncertainty.” He called out how abnormal it was to hear Powell comment this directly on market expectations: “The immediate reaction made sense given it is quite abnormal to hear Powell comment on market pricing so specifically as he always refrains from doing so and makes a point to say he will not comment on market pricing.” That is the core of Thompson’s ￰1￱ just broke his own ￰2￱ tends to reject any framing that implies the Fed is validating market forward ￰3￱ time, after the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%–4.00%, Powell said explicitly that “a further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion — far from it.” He underlined that there are “strongly different views” inside the Committee about the speed and depth of further ￰4￱ immediately ￰5￱ yields moved higher and the probability of a December cut fell sharply from near certainty to something closer to a coin flip, and risk assets reacted ￰6￱ includes crypto: bitcoin and large-cap crypto assets initially traded lower alongside equities as the market read the comment as a hawkish surprise rather than as ￰7￱ Reading: China Intensifies Crypto Crackdown With Latest Warning Against Stablecoins Thompson’s view is that this was not about signaling a hawkish ￰8￱ was about signaling ￰9￱ frames Powell’s remarks as a message to the White House and Congress: reopen the government, restore economic data flow, and the Fed has cover to cut again in December; keep the shutdown in place and deny the Fed official data, and Powell can say, on record, that he cannot justify further ￰10￱ himself emphasized that the central bank has been operating “in the absence of key government data” because the shutdown that began on October 1 has blocked normal labor, inflation, and activity ￰11￱ characterizes that stance as an implicit warning ￰12￱ his words, “What you infer from that is up to you, but additionally I believe the market may have been surprised by what I believe to be an incorrect Fed reaction function to the government ￰13￱ is no scenario in which the economy is stronger because of the shutdown and if they are highlighting continued downside labor market risks, there isn’t a great case to be made to veer from their September dot plot path.” For crypto, the subtext is important: Thompson is saying Powell’s comments were not a signal to tighten financial conditions into ￰14￱ were leverage in a political negotiation, not a policy ceiling on ￰15￱ point is operational, not ￰16￱ is saying the Fed’s stated logic does not actually line up with what the Fed itself claims to be worried about.

Powell’s justification for the October 29 cut leaned heavily on labor market softening and downside employment ￰17￱ official FOMC statement pointed to a “shift in the balance of risks” toward weaker employment, noted that job gains have slowed, and acknowledged that unemployment has edged ￰18￱ also said inflation is still above target but no longer accelerating the way it was earlier in the year, which is why some members favored faster ￰19￱ mix — weakening labor, cooling inflation, policy cuts — has historically been constructive for crypto because it points to easier dollar liquidity and a lower cost of capital without outright ￰20￱ the balance sheet, Thompson highlights something that is already documented in Fed and press statements but has not yet fully repriced across risk: “Just a week or two ago the market was not expecting QT to end this soon and today Powell went so far as to discuss the next step in this process being a return to balance sheet ￰21￱ developments are definitively liquidity positive, even though the MBS reinvestment and future purchases will be all or predominantly bills.” What This Means For Crypto In plain terms, the Fed didn’t just cut rates by 25 ￰22￱ also said it will stop quantitative tightening on December ￰23￱ means the Fed will no longer allow its Treasury and mortgage holdings to roll off passively.

Instead, it will reinvest maturing Treasuries back into Treasuries and redirect principal paydowns from its mortgage-backed securities portfolio into Treasury ￰24￱ Reading: Max Bid Crypto Now: Market Maker Wintermute Turns Fully Bullish For crypto, this is the line that ￰25￱ the Fed stops shrinking its balance sheet and starts recycling back into bills, it’s effectively injecting incremental dollar liquidity into the system, even if it refuses to call it ￰26￱ liquidity has historically leaked into the parts of the market most sensitive to excess cash and duration scarcity — tech, high beta credit, and ￰27￱ is basically saying that under the surface of Powell’s cautious language, the Fed just signaled the start of the next crypto liquidity ￰28￱ is a critical liquidity inflection that is easy to miss if the only headline you absorb is “December cut not guaranteed.” Ending QT this early was not a consensus two weeks ￰29￱ is also why Thompson rejects the idea that Powell’s tone was structurally bearish for ￰30￱ writes, “All in all I think the December cut is still quite likely.” He then lays out the macro sequence he expects to see once the shutdown ends: “Ultimately I think they will reopen the government in the next few weeks so there will be data and it is likely to show inflation falling for the next few months and labor market continue its weakening path, and Trump is making deals that likely bring tariffs down which also earns him brownie points with the FOMC.” The message for crypto investors is that once data resumes, it will justify continued easing, not block ￰31￱ last part of Thompson’s post moves from mechanics to ￰32￱ points directly at Powell’s expiring authority.

“Powell’s term as Chair ends in 6 months and his successor will be known even sooner, creating a shadow Fed chair ￰33￱ remains clear to everyone and the market that the new chair will be friendly towards and help effectuate the admin’s ￰34￱ all of the above, it is difficult for me to paint a risk asset bear case based upon liquidity dynamics as all signs point to continued massaging to support markets.” That is the crypto ￰35￱ is arguing that the institutional bias of the Fed, going into the succession window, is toward maintaining and managing liquidity conditions so markets do not ￰36￱ that bias holds, it is inherently crypto-bullish, because it implies a policy floor under dollar liquidity at the exact moment the Fed is already preparing to halt balance sheet runoff and re-expand via ￰37￱ press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $3.73 ￰38￱ image created with DALL.

E, chart from ￰39￱