Arthur Hayes Believes Crypto Will Soar Once the Treasury Hits 850 Billion

Key Highlights Treasury balance surge could spark crypto’s next breakout Arthur Hayes says $850B marks the liquidity turning point Billions may flow back into markets fueling Bitcoin rally Treasury Balance Nears $850 Billion as Crypto Awaits Turning Point Crypto markets are closely watching the U. S. Treasury’s General Account (TGA) after it surged past $850 billion this month, a level BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes calls a trigger for renewed ￰0￱ argues that once the Treasury completes its cash buildup, liquidity will begin to return to risk assets, setting the stage for a new crypto ￰1￱ the Treasury Balance Matters for Crypto The TGA is the Treasury’s main operating account at the Federal Reserve Bank of New ￰2￱ holds proceeds from bond sales and tax revenues, and its size directly affects liquidity across financial ￰3￱ to MacroMicro data, as of September 18, the balance stood at $816.4 ￰4￱ three days earlier, however, it had already crossed the $850 billion threshold — setting a record high for ￰5￱ believes this “cushion” target signals the end of liquidity drain.

“Growth can only resume once the liquidity outflow is complete,” he ￰6￱ Shifts and the Path Ahead Since mid-July 2025, the Treasury has aggressively added to its balance, often draining liquidity from risk markets like ￰7￱ once the account stabilizes at its target level, Hayes expects capital to flow back into assets such as Bitcoin and ￰8￱ July 1, 2025, the ￰9￱ passed the “Big Beautiful Bill,” raising the debt ceiling by $5 ￰10￱ enabled the Treasury to issue more bonds and replenish the TGA, accelerating its ￰11￱ Hayes is right, the Treasury’s milestone could soon unlock a fresh wave of liquidity for ￰12￱ the balance near its target, crypto markets are bracing for what could be the next major upswing.