This Trend Has Marked Local Tops in Bitcoin, but This Time May Be Different

Short-term holders (STHs) have added roughly 450,000 BTC to their supply since July, now holding around 2.6 million BTC according to Glassnode ￰0￱ are defined as investors who purchased bitcoin within the past 155 ￰1￱ increase marks the third distinct cycle of rising STH activity since the start of 2024 and has typically marks a local top in the bitcoin ￰2￱ first peak occurred in April 2024, shortly after bitcoin’s March all-time high of $73,000. The second peak came in January 2025, aligning with the $110,000 all-time high, and the latest so far, the third peak has followed a new record of $126,000. Each successive cycle has seen a smaller STH cohort, suggesting that overall market euphoria and speculative behavior are gradually ￰3￱ these three peaks, STH supply as a share of total circulating supply has declined from 22% to 20%, and now sits at roughly 18%, according to Glassnode ￰4￱ in Q1 2025, STHs held as much as 2.8 million BTC, but their supply fell to around 2.1 million BTC as bitcoin declined to $76,000.

This indicates that STHs were a major driver of the selling pressure seen in ￰5￱ contrast, long-term holders (the inverse of STHs) started to reduce their position over the summer months, distributing roughly 250,000 BTC since July as bitcoin consolidated, now holding 14.5 million ￰6￱ Bitcoin enters its historically strongest period of the quarter, the expectation is STH supply will continue to increase and make new cycle highs to over 3 million BTC.