Strategy’s Bitcoin Position Is Bear-Proof, Analyst Says

According to Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo, Strategy (MSTR) is unlikely to be forced to sell its Bitcoin in the next major market ￰0￱ holds about 641,205 Bitcoin, a stake worth roughly $64 billion at current prices, according to Saylor ￰1￱ Debt Gives Flexibility Strategy’s debt is mostly in convertible senior notes that carry a holder put right dated Sept. 15, ￰2￱ on Woo’s calculations, Strategy would need its stock to trade above $183 around that date to avoid selling Bitcoin to meet ￰3￱ stock level lines up with a Bitcoin price near $91,502, assuming a multiple net-asset-value (mNAV) of ￰4￱ company can settle conversions with cash, common stock, or a mix of both, and that choice gives management breathing room when markets ￰5￱ liquidation in the next bear market?

I doubt it, Here’s their debt, the date the debt is due and the price MSTR stock needs to exceed to prevent partial liquidation of their BTC treasury to pay the ￰6￱ BTC price assumes mNAV 1.0 ￰7￱ — Willy Woo (@woonomic) November 4, 2025 Market Moves Put Pressure On Short Timescales Strategy’s share price closed at $246.99, a seven-month low, down nearly 6.7% on the reported ￰8￱ was trading at $102,004, down 9% over the past seven days, Coingecko data ￰9￱ on reports , some market watchers say it would take a very prolonged and deep decline to force Strategy into selling its ￰10￱ analyst put it this way: for the firm to liquidate, Bitcoin would need to underperform badly for a long ￰11￱ words reflect the view that the company is insulated — but not ￰12￱ Of Partial Sales Looms Willy Woo did add a ￰13￱ suggested a partial sale could happen if Bitcoin fails to climb quickly during an expected 2028 bull ￰14￱ on reports, that scenario would not be caused by a single bad week, but by a slow recovery that leaves Strategy’s stock weak when debt dates ￰15￱ public forecasts remain far more bullish: ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong have both mentioned targets as high as $1,000,000 for BTC by ￰16￱ Structure And Practical Choices The convertible note setup means the company does not face an automatic margin call that forces an immediate ￰17￱ can be settled with stock, which shifts the pressure onto MSTR’s share price rather than Bitcoin alone.

However, that linkage also ties Strategy’s fate more tightly to investor appetite for a stock that mirrors Bitcoin’s ￰18￱ Term Drops, Long Term Tests Strategy looks broadly protected against a typical bear ￰19￱ the math shows a clear cut point: about $1 billion in debt comes due by the holder put date mentioned ￰20￱ Bitcoin and MSTR equity both underperform for an extended period, adjustments may be ￰21￱ now, major analysts say liquidation is unlikely in the next downturn, but they also flag 2028 as a critical year for whether any sales become ￰22￱ image from Outside Bozeman , chart from TradingView