Polymarket and Kalshi traders count millions in losses from misplaced Dutch election bets

Polymarket and Kalshi traders have lost millions in misplaced bets after the betting platforms overlooked late polls in the Dutch ￰0￱ platforms failed to show that D66 was gaining popularity, pricing Geert Wilders’ PVV as a sure outcome until exit polls forced a ￰1￱ the very final hours of the Netherlands election on October 29, buyers at Polymarket and Kalshi were sure that Geert Wilders’ nationalist Partij voor de Vrijheid (Party for Freedom) would easily ￰2￱ major poll showed that Rob Jetten’s socially liberal Democraten 66 (D66) was getting stronger. However, the market didn’t change ￰3￱ the first exit poll, D66 odds went from 5% to 100% in minutes, taking out millions of overconfident PVV ￰4￱ Polymarket misread the Dutch election According to reports , 98% of votes counted in the Dutch parliamentary elections showed that both the centrist-liberal D66 and the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) were projected to secure 26 seats each in the 150-seat lower ￰5￱ PVV, led by Geert Wilders, this represented a loss of 11 seats, a result that took many by surprise, especially traders who had bet heavily on the party’s success through the prediction market ￰6￱ wasn’t much better as traders overpriced Wilders’ PVV until election ￰7￱ from Polymarket Analytics shows that the Dutch election became less a test of foresight and more a test of ￰8￱ traders clung to losing PVV bets out of ideological conviction, refusing to adjust their positions even as late polls turned decisively in favor of ￰9￱ before the results, a smaller group of data-driven participants quietly capitalized on this shift, profiting from the same volatility that punished the so-called “conviction traders.” At the time, analysts speculated that the bias came from crypto traders, who tend to lean right politically, or even from foreign ￰10￱ the Dutch case, however, ideological traders dominated the ￰11￱ largest traders in the Dutch election bets market.