Norway Probes Potential Insider Trading Scandal Sparked by Suspicious Polymarket Bets: Report

Norwegian officials are investigating a possible information leak related to betting activity on Polymarket, following online wagers that correctly predicted the winner of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize hours before the official ￰2￱ to Bloomberg , the Norwegian Nobel Institute has confirmed that it is examining whether confidential information about the prize recipient, Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, was leaked ahead of the public announcement. “We’re looking into it,” said Erik Aasheim, spokesperson for the Nobel Institute, following reports first published by Aftenposten and ￰3￱ Investigate Nobel Prize Information Leak Linked to Polymarket Trading The investigation was prompted after trading data on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform built on the Polygon blockchain, showed a sudden surge in bets favoring Machado roughly 11 hours before the Nobel Committee’s announcement in ￰4￱ was ultimately awarded the prize on Friday morning for her efforts to restore democracy in Venezuela.) ￰0￱ … ￰5￱ — PredictFolio (@PredictFolio) October 10, 2025 Hours before the Nobel Committee made its public announcement, Machado’s contract price began climbing sharply, while odds for other candidates remained ￰6￱ incident shows both the power and risk of open information ￰7￱ such platforms aggregate public sentiment and data efficiently, they also raise questions about insider knowledge when trading activity appears to outpace official ￰8￱ authorities have not commented on whether any formal financial investigation will follow, but officials within the Nobel Institute acknowledged the need to review the integrity of the prize ￰9￱ case marks one of the first known instances in which a blockchain-based prediction market has potentially exposed a leak within a major international ￰10￱ note that even though no major media outlets reported on Machado’s win before the announcement, the Polymarket data had already priced it ￰11￱ Eyes ￰12￱ With $205M Raise as Kalshi Dominates Market Amidst the allegation, Polymarket has raised a combined $205 million across two previously undisclosed funding rounds between 2024 and 2025, according to CEO Shayne ￰13￱ investments have lifted the company’s valuation to $1.2 billion, marking its transition from a DeFi startup to a major player in the prediction market ￰14￱ first round, in 2024, secured $55 million led by Blockchain Capital at a $350 million valuation.

A year later, Founders Fund led a $150 million Series B with participation from Ribbit Capital, Valor, Point72 Ventures, SV Angel, 1confirmation, Coinbase, and Dragonfly. Polymarket’s total funding now stands at roughly $279 million, excluding a new partnership with Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, which plans to invest up to $2 ￰15￱ is preparing to relaunch in the United States after acquiring QCX LLC for $112 million, a move that granted it a Designated Contract Market ￰16￱ CFTC recently issued a no-action letter clearing the way for trading to resume, following the firm’s 2022 settlement and $1.4 million fine for operating without registration. @Polymarket shows a 50/50 split on @pumpdotfun 's $PUMP ATH this year as Solana’s memecoin factory generates $500M in fees. #Polymarket #memecoins #Pump ￰1￱ — ￰17￱ (@cryptonews) October 3, 2025 Despite earlier restrictions, Polymarket continued to grow overseas, processing more than $6 billion in trades during the first half of ￰18￱ resurgence comes as rival platform Kalshi surged ahead, reportedly surpassing $50 billion in annual trading volume and capturing over 60% of the global prediction market share, according to Dune Analytics.