Norway Probes Nobel Peace Prize Bets on Polymarket

The probe mainly centers on blockchain-based platform Polymarket, where one user reportedly made more than $30,000 after wagering on Machado’s ￰0￱ quickly raised suspicions of leaked ￰1￱ investigation comes just as Polymarket and rival Kalshi surged in popularity and valuation after securing $2 billion and $300 million in funding ￰2￱ by the Intercontinental Exchange and now valued at $9 billion, Polymarket is expanding into the US after more regulatory clarity and CFTC ￰3￱ over $1.4 billion in combined monthly trading volume, prediction markets are quickly changing from crypto experiments into powerful financial ￰4￱ Bets Under Investigation Norwegian officials reportedly launched an investigation into potential espionage related to bets placed on prediction markets ahead of the announcement of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner, María Corina ￰5￱ to a Bloomberg report , the Norwegian Nobel Institute, which assists the Nobel Committee in the selection process, began looking into whether confidential information about the winner was leaked and used for profit on the blockchain-based prediction platform ￰6￱ Berg Harpviken, director of the institute, confirmed that authorities are investigating if someone “managed to steal information and made a lot of money from it.” Data from Polymarket showed that a user under the handle “dirtycup” earned over $30,000 after wagering roughly $70,000 on Machado’s ￰7￱ also reported that three accounts placing similar bets made a combined profit of around $90,000, which raised suspicions of insider ￰8￱ Peace Prize Winner odds () Machado is a Venezuelan opposition leader and human rights advocate, and was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for her work promoting democracy in ￰9￱ has also been vocal about Bitcoin’s role in providing Venezuelans with financial freedom, and called it “a lifeline” amid the nation’s severe inflation and economic instability.

María Corina Machado Polymarket launched in 2020, and has become one of the most popular decentralized prediction markets that allows users to bet on real-world events ranging from political outcomes to entertainment and ￰10￱ platform’s growth recently attracted major institutional backing, including a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock ￰11￱ move reportedly coincides with Polymarket’s plans to expand operations in the United States after receiving more regulatory clarity from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The CFTC issued a no-action letter to two Polymarket entities in September, effectively giving them permission to operate without the usual reporting obligations that apply to traditional financial ￰12￱ was a major turning point for the company, and CEO Shayne Coplan called it “the green light to go live in the USA.” The scrutiny from Norwegian authorities, however, noe casts a shadow over this ￰13￱ Markets Hit Billion-Dollar Boom Prediction markets recently experienced a major surge in momentum, with both Kalshi and Polymarket securing massive new funding ￰14￱ mentioned above, Polymarket raised $2 billion from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), bringing its valuation to $9 ￰15￱ followed closely with a $300 million raise that valued the company at $5 ￰16￱ latest investments also created a new billionaire in Polymarket founder Shayne ￰17￱ reported that he became the youngest self-made billionaire after the ￰18￱ funding announcements were made amid an explosive rise in trading volumes and competition between the two leading prediction ￰19￱ September, Kalshi briefly overtook Polymarket with a 60% market share, which was a sharp reversal from earlier this year when Polymarket dominated trading activity.

Combined, the two platforms handled a record-breaking $1.44 billion in trading volume during the month, which proved that mainstream interest in event-based speculation as an alternative to traditional financial markets is on the ￰20￱ and Kalshi market share () Despite their shared focus on prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket differ a lot when it comes to their technical design and market ￰21￱ operates off-chain, meaning its data can only be accessed via traditional ￰22￱ has raised some questions about independent verification of its reported figures. Polymarket, on the other hand, is fully on-chain, which allows every market, position, and transaction to be transparently viewed on the ￰23￱ appeals to crypto-native users who value open verification.

Kalshi’s growth has been fueled in part by its recent partnership with Robinhood, which now integrates Kalshi’s prediction markets directly into its trading ￰24￱ move gives Kalshi exposure to Robinhood’s massive retail user base and is a pivotal step in bringing prediction markets into the mainstream. Overall, it is clear that prediction markets are evolving from niche crypto experiments into big financial platforms that attract both institutional investment and retail participation.