Musk's trillion-dollar Tesla pay day hangs on 'very optimistic' $8.5 trillion valuation

Elon Musk has never turned away from big dreams and challenges. Now, the Tesla chief executive has been handed a pay package so outlandish it makes every other CEO’s bonus look ￰0￱ claim the full reward – potentially worth more than a trillion dollars, Musk must turn Tesla into an $8.5 trillion company within ten ￰1￱ figure would place Tesla above the combined market value of Microsoft and Nvidia, currently the world’s two corporate titans. However, currently it remains a plan on paper and shareholders are yet to decide on the plan in ￰2￱ are expected to support Tesla’s milestones Tesla’s present valuation sits closer to $1 trillion, built as much on investor faith as on sales ￰3￱ the possibility of vehicle deliveries slipping in the future as they have slipped last year, the company’s shares continue to trade on frothy multiple of 75 times of ￰4￱ are effectively buying into Musk’s promise of markets not yet ￰5￱ structure of the package offers a clue to where the board sees growth coming ￰6￱ 12 milestones are tied to both profit targets and product rollouts – in particular, self-driving taxis and the so-called Optimus humanoid ￰7￱ to a previous Cryptopolitan report , Tesla operates a robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, although it is still tiny with perhaps a few dozen vehicles.

Musk’s early goal is one million autonomous cars in circulation. Musk’s supporters are not difficult to ￰8￱ group ARK Invest has been long bullish on Tesla, predicting this quarter that the company could be worth between $7 to $11 trillion by ￰9￱ model assumes a global robotaxi network generating between $603 billion and $951 billion annually, dwarfing Uber’s expected $52 billion revenue this year. ARK’s research goes ￰10￱ says Tesla’s slice of robotaxi fares would be 40% to 60%, roughly double Uber’s current cut. Notably, ARK did not even factor humanoid robots into its valuation, although it has suggested that the market could eventually be worth $24 ￰11￱ himself has raised the stakes, declaring that Optimus could one day account for “80 per cent of Tesla’s value.” According to a Reuters analysis , to meet the $400 billion profit target in Musk’s pay plan, the company will need to sell around 100 million robots annually, each priced at about $25,000.

Even halving that figure would require doubling the company’s current ￰12￱ compare, Tesla’s expected EBITDA this year is $13 billion – a chasm between present reality and future ￰13￱ Musk being realistic to shareholders? How investors ultimately price Tesla at the end of this decade may matter more than how many cars or robots it ￰14￱ its current multiple of 75 times EBITDA, Tesla would need $113 billion of annual profit to justify an $8.5 trillion valuation – far below the $400 billion goal. Still, Morgan Stanley analysts called the targets “materially more aggressive” than their own ￰15￱ noted that such numbers “would imply substantial contributions from Optimus and other AI robot end markets currently not in our forecasts.” The scale of Musk’s potential payout has inevitably polarized ￰16￱ have been put forward that this is Musk dreaming big but not being realistic to his shareholders and ￰17￱ decision to be made by shareholders in November will be based more on belief in their CEO than on hard ￰18￱ Tesla will be looking at is if it can be revolutionary and lead the robotic economy as much as it has with premium electric ￰19￱ that dream becomes reality, then Musk’s paycheck will be seen as a worthy ￰20￱ you're reading this, you’re already ￰21￱ there with our newsletter .