Japan’s 30-year yield nears 3.3%, threatening a global carry unwind

Japan’s 30-year government bond yield is around the low-to-mid 3s, a clear break from the zero-rate ￰0￱ move follows policy normalization and the end of yield-curve control, allowing long-dated term premiums to ￰1￱ anchor to transmitter For decades, cheap yen funding underwrote global carry trades and muted ￰2￱ domestic yields weaken that ￰3￱ incentives to keep capital abroad fade, repatriation pressure can build and global liquidity can ￰4￱ to watch Persistence of elevated long-bond prints, central-bank balance-sheet guidance, and updates to Japan’s external ￰5￱ pressure at the long end would raise the odds of broader cross-asset volatility.