India's biggest private refiner quietly pulls away from Russian oil purchases

India’s entire energy equation has been changed ￰0￱ Industries, the country’s biggest private refiner, is quietly pulling away from Russian oil purchases, a direct fallout from new sanctions imposed by the United States on Rosneft and ￰1￱ as Russia became one of India’s most critical oil suppliers, Donald Trump’s administration is turning the screws on Moscow’s top energy ￰2￱ Reliance is stuck in the middle of ￰3￱ numbers speak for ￰4￱ September alone, Reliance brought in nearly 630,000 barrels of Russian crude oil daily from Rosneft and ￰5￱ made up a huge chunk of India’s total 1.6 million barrels per day of Russian oil imports that ￰6￱ a year ago, Reliance was lifting 428,000 barrels a ￰7￱ a couple years before that, Russian oil barely registered, less than 3% of India’s total imports.

Today, it’s one-third of the national ￰8￱ the whole setup is unraveling, and Reliance has gone radio silent. They’ve declined to comment on the ￰9￱ force Reliance to walk away The Treasury Department rolled out sanctions on Wednesday, accusing Moscow of having “a lack of serious commitment” to ending the war in ￰10￱ no company has been directly targeted outside Russia, the pressure is crystal ￰11￱ refiners are getting the ￰12￱ Srivastava, senior VP at Rystad Energy, said if Reliance drops Russian crude, “it will have negative impacts on its margin and profitability as Russian crude constitutes more than 50% of its crude diet.” Srivastava also pointed out that while replacements are technically available, from West Asia, Brazil, or Guyana, the costs won’t be nearly as ￰13￱ had long-term supply deals with Rosneft, and those barrels came at serious ￰14￱ oil that fits technically isn’t the issue, it’s the price that’ll ￰15￱ fact, last December, Reliance locked in a 10-year deal with Rosneft worth $12 to $13 billion annually, tied to volumes around 500,000 barrels per ￰16￱ contract is now in ￰17￱ Xu, senior crude oil analyst at Kpler, says the change won’t be smooth.

“Given the large volumes under the Reliance-Rosneft deal, we expect some short-term friction for Reliance in securing replacement barrels,” she ￰18￱ noted that Russia’s Urals grade still trades at around $5–6 cheaper per barrel than similar-quality Middle Eastern crude, meaning Reliance’s bottom line takes a hit no matter where it turns ￰19￱ fallout triggers trade opportunity with ￰20￱ Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, called the entire Russian oil strategy “opportunistic buying” based purely on ￰21￱ September, India scooped up 38% of Russia’s global crude exports, second only to China’s 47%, based on figures from the Centre for Energy and Clean ￰22￱ now, even Hari says India can ￰23￱ can switch barrels, though she warned “the trade-off is pressure on refining margins.” Brokerage firm Jefferies believes the impact is real but ￰24￱ a note from September, they told investors that even if Reliance halts Russian imports entirely, the damage is “manageable.” They estimated Russian oil contributes 2.1% of Reliance’s expected ₹2.05 trillion ($22.8 billion) in EBITDA for fiscal ￰25￱ margin matters when every dollar ￰26￱ the first half of fiscal 2026, Reliance reported ₹1.08 trillion ($12.3 billion) in total EBITDA, with ₹295 billion from its oil-to-chemicals ￰27￱ telecom and retail arms brought in close to ₹500 billion ￰28￱ Indian refiners are following suit.

Everyone’s pulling away from Russia’s ￰29￱ means India’s import bill could rise, but Hari said it won’t be “as big a sticker shock” because WTI crude is sitting around $61.83 per barrel, far from the $70–$80 range seen ￰30￱ experts believe ditching Russian oil is worth the ￰31￱ Nguyen, senior economist at Natixis, said the arbitrage advantage from Russian crude is fading, especially now that the global energy crisis has ￰32￱ her view, India no longer needs to depend heavily on Moscow. There’s also the geopolitical bonus. India’s tight relationship with Russian oil had become a thorn in its dealings with ￰33￱ peaked when Trump’s administration imposed a total 50% tariff on Indian goods going into the ￰34￱ now, with both state-owned and private refiners turning off the Russian tap—something Trump has pushed for since his first term—the odds of India landing a real, favorable trade deal with the ￰35￱ got ￰36￱ your free seat in an exclusive crypto trading community - limited to 1,000 members.