Gemini Space Station: Major Growth Catalysts In Place To Drive Growth

Summary Gemini Space Station is rated a buy, with the market underestimating its growth potential and diversified revenue streams. GEMI's rapidly scaling credit card business and Nasdaq partnership are driving recurring revenue and expanding both retail and institutional ￰0￱ move to Florida unlocks product innovation and broader asset listings, positioning GEMI competitively in the evolving crypto ￰1￱ Summary My recommendation for Gemini Space Station ( GEMI ) is a buy rating, as I believe the market is not appreciating its growth ￰2￱ Gemini Credit Card is scaling faster than expected, creating a powerful funnel for recurring users, while the Nasdaq partnership opens a high-margin institutional channel.

Together, these catalysts diversify revenue, improve earnings quality, and support a clear growth path ￰3￱ Overview At its core, GEMI runs a global crypto exchange where both retail investors and large institutions can trade and store digital ￰4￱ is a global crypto exchange founded in ￰5￱ business provides a platform for both retail and institutional clients to buy, sell, and store crypto ￰6￱ the core exchange, which accounted for ~69% of 2024 net revenue , GEMI offerings include staking, custody services, tokenized stocks, and a rapidly expanding credit card business that provides crypto ￰7￱ of July 2025, GEMI served ~549,000 monthly transacting users MTUs and 10,000 institutions across >60 ￰8￱ Underestimated Growth Potential In my opinion, the market is probably overlooking (if not, the share price wouldn’t be at this level) what could become GEMI’s most powerful growth driver—the Gemini Credit ￰9￱ is a lot more than just a new product line; I see this as a solid customer acquisition funnel that is scaling rapidly and showing clear product-market ￰10￱ perspective, the August 2025 launch of the co-branded Ripple card drove more than 30,000 new sign-ups in a single month, and this is more than double the prior month’s figure (per S-1 filings).

This monthly sequential growth strength shows us that consumers want the ￰11￱ implication of this ramp-up in adoption has a much bigger impact than just being an incremental revenue ￰12￱ has indicated that cardholders have higher lifetime value than non-cardholders, and I think this is the key that readers should really ￰13￱ way I see it, the card effectively acts as the “bridge” to the core exchange, allowing users to earn rewards in crypto through their daily ￰14￱ creates natural cross-sell opportunities while making users more engaged within the ￰15￱ easy way to think about this is to see this model as something similar to earning frequent flyer ￰16￱ time a customer buys coffee or groceries, they accumulate crypto rewards that automatically sit in their Gemini ￰17￱ rewards form a small starter portfolio at zero ￰18￱ users have that, the next logical move is to make it ￰19￱ here, two straightforward cross-sell opportunities emerge: staking and ￰20￱ with staking, GEMI can encourage users to put their earned crypto to work instead of letting it idle.

Staking, in simple terms, means locking up crypto to help secure the network and receiving more tokens in return. Basically, this yields on your ￰21￱ first-time users, this is a low-risk, intuitive way to learn about earning passive income on digital ￰22￱ they see their rewards balance compounding, confidence builds, and they will likely move to ￰23￱ ￰24￱ might convert a portion of their bitcoin rewards into ether, or vice versa, and from there they become more active traders. Hence, what this illustrates is that the Gemini card is far more than a payments product; it effectively converts casual spenders into potential long-term exchange ￰25￱ customers are initially playing with “house money,” the friction to engage is minimal, and the incentive to stay involved is ￰26￱ time, I believe this should help smooth the cyclicality of trading activity and expand GEMI’s recurring revenue base.

Gemini’s user growth story also reflects consumers' demand for ￰27￱ way I benchmark this is by comparing it to similar nascent-fast-growth platforms like Coinbase ( COIN ) and Robinhood ( HOOD ). Since Q1 2025, GEMI MTUs have grown 17.8%, outpacing both COIN and ￰28￱ metrics even show accelerating ￰29￱ climbed from ~523,000 at the end of Q2 2025 to ~549,000 by the end of July, which implies a quarterly sequential add growth of ~15% (if we assume the same traction for the remaining months in Q3), or ~60% run-rate ￰30￱ Hurdles Another underappreciated aspect, I believe, is the significance of GEMI’s decision to establish Gemini Moonbase in Florida as its primary US ￰31￱ is beyond a normal administrative move; I think this is actually a move to unlock further growth, one that has been constrained by New York’s tighter regulatory ￰32￱ the past, the New York trust charter served as a badge of compliance, and that gave GEMI the credibility it needed.

However, this badge is now increasingly limiting GEMI product velocity and ability to stay ￰33￱ For those that have followed the crypto world, things change very fast , and participants in the ecosystem want newness to stay engaged, and hence, with this structure in Florida, GEMI can now better compete on product breadth, which is an important differentiator in retail ￰34￱ ability to list a wider range of assets, and this is particularly for smaller, niche tokens that drive social media buzz (like Fartcoin, which had a market cap of $2 billion at one point). This is because, for retail investors, the best way to convert them is through these tokens (everyone talks about it and makes money from it, so they want a piece of it as well).

The demand pull is ￰35￱ new investors look for a specific altcoin, they naturally gravitate toward the platform with the broadest selection. Therefore, by operating under a more flexible regulatory regime, GEMI can now fully capitalize on this ￰36￱ Nasdaq Partnership The partnership with Nasdaq is a really big game-changer for ￰37￱ only did it provide GEMI with a validation, but it also gave it a major new distribution ￰38￱ validation, I see Nasdaq’s agreement to purchase $50 million of GEMI stock in a private placement represents a strong vote of confidence, and this matters for investors because Nasdaq is one of the most established and widely recognized exchanges in traditional ￰39￱ put, this showed the market that GEMI “passes” the credibility and regulatory due diligence of ￰40￱ the real game-changing element in this deal is the commercial ￰41￱ will work with GEMI to enable its own corporate clients (including listed companies and member firms) to custody and stake digital ￰42￱ is incredibly huge because it effectively transforms Nasdaq into a direct sales channel for the GEMI institutional platform, which gives it access to a huge market of corporate treasuries ( this figure is dated , but it shows the size).

The financial impact is a stream of high-margin, recurring institutional revenue, and this draws back to my point above that more recurring revenue will smooth out the cyclicality of GEMI’s trading ￰43￱ Redfox Capital Ideas I know that the crypto space is a very volatile space, so projecting revenue growth may be hard. Hence, my assumptions lean conservative, expecting revenue growth to slow down to 20% over the next 4 ￰44￱ reference, when COIN had a revenue base of ~$533 million in FY19, it went on to grow the business to a size of $7 billion as of the last twelve months. Therefore, I think my assumptions may be too conservative, especially with the recurring revenue growth potential (from Gemini Card and Nasdaq partnership).

But suppose GEMI performs as I expected; it should trade at 10.5x forward revenue, basically the same multiple that COIN trades today with a high-teens revenue growth ￰45￱ net debt and dividing by the share count gives me a share price target of $42. Risk Despite the growth story, there are significant risks to ￰46￱ crypto space is a very competitive industry, facing pressure from unregulated offshore exchanges that have lower compliance costs, as well as from traditional financial firms that are increasingly entering the crypto space (like Interactive Brokerage offering users the choice to invest in Bitcoin). While GEMI has gotten the badge of recognition from large industry heavyweights, the uncertain regulatory landscape will keep being a ￰47￱ adverse legal actions or new rules could force GEMI to alter its products or halt operations in key ￰48￱ I give a buy rating for ￰49￱ combination of accelerating card adoption, a larger institutional footprint through Nasdaq, and a more flexible regulatory base in Florida should enable GEMI to continue growing ￰50￱ current levels, I believe the stock offers attractive risk-reward with meaningful upside potential ahead.