Forget Bitcoin’s Halving — The ‘Business Cycle’ Is The Real Market Killer: Analyst

Bitcoin jumped about 4% in the past 24 hours, trading near $110,000 . Short-term players are watching a break above $112,200 for signs of renewed strength, while long-term holders still sit largely in ￰0￱ have disclosed that easing US–China tensions may help risk assets like Bitcoin in the near term, adding a geopolitical layer to price ￰1￱ Risks Could Shape Next Downturn According to analyst Willy Woo, the next crypto bear market could be driven by a classic “business cycle” slump rather than the usual crypto ￰2￱ pointed out that two cycles have overlapped so far: the four-year Bitcoin halving rhythm and swings in M2 money ￰3￱ warned that a true business cycle contraction — the kind seen around 2001 and 2008 — would be a different test for Bitcoin’s role in ￰4￱ had two 4y cycles superimposed Now it’s only one; global M2 liquidity Next bear IMO will be defined by another cycle people forget about → the business cycle The last biz cycle downturns that really took hold was 2008 and 2001, from before crypto markets were invented ￰5￱ — Willy Woo (@woonomic) October 20, 2025 Historical Events Offer A Guide The dot-com downturn around 2001 saw US stocks fall roughly 50% over two ￰6￱ during the 2008 financial crisis the S&P 500 dropped about 56% as credit froze and GDP ￰7￱ events happened before crypto existed, which is why Woo says crypto has not yet been stress-tested by a full-scale ￰8￱ on reports, that concern is about how liquidity would change and how quickly investors would sell riskier ￰9￱ And Recession Signals The National Bureau of Economic Research tracks employment, personal income, industrial production and retail sales to spot ￰10￱ now there is no across-the-board signal that a deep downturn is imminent, though some risks are ￰11￱ tariffs are one factor that trimmed growth in the first half of 2025 and are expected to weigh on GDP into the first half of 2026, analysts ￰12￱ kind of slower growth can sap liquidity and pressure markets. $BTC has reclaimed the $109,000-$110,000 support ￰13￱ next crucial level to reclaim is $112,000, which could push Bitcoin ￰14￱ US-China trade tensions easing, I think BTC could rally more from ￰15￱ — Ted (@TedPillows) October 20, 2025 What Traders Are Watching Next Analyst Ted Pillows said Bitcoin has regained a foothold between $109,000 and $110,000, and he pointed to $112,000 as the next resistance that matters.

A clean move above that zone could invite more buyers. Conversely, a sharp liquidity squeeze from a broader recession could force Bitcoin to move more like tech stocks did in past downturns, not like ￰16￱ Real Test Woo said the real test for Bitcoin will come when cash gets tight and investors must choose where to park money — not from the usual crypto ￰17￱ period, he said, will expose who treated Bitcoin as a hedge and who treated it as a high-risk bet, and that outcome will shape institutional behavior and market rules going ￰18￱ image from Gemini, chart from TradingView