Could Bitcoin Experience an 80% Drop Like the Old Bear Markets? Chinese Analyst Explains by Looking at Whales

Chinese on-chain analyst Murphy drew attention to the behavior of Bitcoin (BTC) whales in this cycle in the latest data he ￰0￱ to the analysis, whale wallets holding at least 100 BTC currently hold a total of 12.17 million BTC, or 61% of the circulating ￰1￱ is similar to levels at the peak of the 2021 bull market and well above the approximately 10 million BTC level reached during the 2017 bull ￰2￱ to Murphy, many experienced investors shifted their holdings to new institutional investors during this cycle, changing the dynamics of market participation. However, whales' optimism or fear-driven attitude will continue to determine Bitcoin's future bull-bear ￰3￱ 2017–2018, when the BTC price began to correct from $19,587, whales lost an average of $1 billion per ￰4￱ sustained and uncontrolled selling pressure led to an 80% crash, triggering a year-long bear ￰5￱ scale of losses grew even larger during the 2021–2022 ￰6￱ lost $3 billion in a single day during the May 19, 2021, crash, and $4 billion during the Luna ￰7￱ daily losses exceeding $2 billion during this period signaled the end of the bull ￰8￱ News: Bitcoin (BTC) Fiyatı Bugün Sert Düştü: 100.000 Doların Altını Görecek Miyiz? İşte Tahminler However, according to the analyst, the current cycle presents a different ￰9￱ $2 billion single-day loss seen on August 5, 2024, was the sharpest selling panic to date, while the daily losses of $1.1 billion and $800 million experienced during Trump's renewed tariff wars in February and April 2025 were much more ￰10￱ the most recent crash on October 11, 2025, whales displayed remarkable composure, losing only $400 ￰11￱ to the analyst, this behavior indicates a significant maturation in investor psychology.

Therefore, Murphy states that a repeat of a long and deep bear market like the past (80% decline) no longer seems likely in this cycle. *This is not investment ￰12￱ Reading: Could Bitcoin Experience an 80% Drop Like the Old Bear Markets? Chinese Analyst Explains by Looking at Whales