Coinbase: A Bullish Year-End Could Spark A Multiple Expansion

Summary Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) is rated a Buy with a $385 price target, implying 17% upside over the next 12 months. COIN's 33% YTD price appreciation is driven by improved crypto sentiment and strong demand for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and ￰0￱ a mixed FQ2 2025 with a revenue miss, COIN delivered robust EPS growth, highlighting resilient business ￰1￱ year-end seasonality, projected 49% revenue growth, and potential for multiple expansion support a bullish investment thesis for ￰2￱ Global, Inc. (NASDAQ: COIN ) is an American financial technology company and cryptocurrency ￰3￱ company offers a user-friendly approach to trading, staking, and storing crypto ￰4￱ COIN stock price has appreciated about 33% year-to-date, mainly driven by improved crypto sentiment and increased demand for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and ￰5￱ company is highly dependent on user activity, and with favorable seasonality in place, a bullish year-end crypto landscape could spark multiple expansions.

Historically, Q4 is the most bullish quarter for both Bitcoin and ￰6￱ cryptocurrencies underscore median returns of around 52% and 23%, ￰7￱ trades at a roughly 41 forward P/E, which may appear elevated, but with 49% revenue growth over the past 12 months, I think there is still room for multiple expansion. I think Coinbase is a Buy, with a $385 price target over the next 12 ￰8￱ implies approximately 17% upside and the broader market ￰9￱ company has several tailwinds, which, combined with a favorable year-end seasonality, may offer a compelling opportunity. FQ2 2025 Snapshot: Miss On Revenue, But Growth Is Intact On July 31, the company reported its FQ2 2025 ￰10￱ was a mixed quarter, with a top-line miss of around $96 million ( 6.5% surprise ), but with a significant bottom-line result, exceeding estimates by $3.65 (244% surprise).

The company reported roughly $1.5 billion in revenue, indicating a 3% increase on a year-over-year basis, and $5.14 EPS, representing a massive rise from only $0.14 EPS, the same quarter last year. COIN: FQ2 2025 Highlights (Coinbase Investor Relations) Management highlighted around $656 million in subscription and revenue services and $33 million in adjusted net ￰11￱ table below represents a comparison between the company's results over the last 5 quarters. I think it paints the broader picture well, supporting the thesis that the crypto landscape is seasonal, and that significantly correlates to Coin's ￰12￱ instance, the 2024 year-end and the first three months of 2025 underscored exceptional consumer and institutional activity, 2x higher than the typical top-line contribution.

I expect the activity to increase over the next 3 months, too, which could drive revenue ￰13￱ could attract new customers, and this seasonality tailwind could result in multiple ￰14￱ are a few other reasons why I think Coinbase may experience an increase in volume over the following ￰15￱ begin with, the stablecoin regulation known as the GENIUS Act brings more clarity to the stablecoin framework, which COIN is heavily exposed to via staking, USDC, and ￰16￱ clarity may also contribute to an increase in rising demand and larger volumes tied to subscription and service revenue. Furthermore, there is a significant digital asset treasury demand, which drives pro-crypto ￰17￱ instance, there are Bitcoin and Ethereum treasury companies, which are expected to continue buying cryptocurrencies and provide downside ￰18￱ stabilizes and pushes up price floors, and Coinbase, as a leading exchange, benefits from the DAT demand, offering custody services and providing a user-friendly platform for institutions.

COIN: FQ2 2025 Total Revenue (Coinbase Investor Relations) The trading volume table below emphasizes my thesis ￰19￱ we compare FQ2 2024 to FQ4 2024, consumers were almost 3x more active, which implies that the 2025 year-end could also be more active for ￰20￱ same applies to institutional investors, as the volume almost doubled from $189 billion to $345 billion. COIN: FQ2 2025 Trading Volume (Coinbase Investor Relations) I think 55% of other crypto assets' trading volume is phenomenal, and makes me believe that investors may be positioning themselves for an altcoin season ￰21￱ cryptocurrencies are known to be more volatile and speculative; therefore, a significant increase in other crypto asset volume combined with improved sentiment could ignite a favorable to Coinbase year-end ￰22￱ also provided the FQ3 2025 ￰23￱ company expects $705 million in subscription and services revenue at the ￰24￱ would indicate a 7% increase on a quarter-over-quarter basis, and roughly 30% upside from FQ3 2024 of about $556 million.

COIN: FQ3 2025 Guidance (Coinbase Investor Relations) I think this was a mixed quarter for the company, but overall growth is ￰25￱ company expects more active user engagement, led by favorable crypto seasonality, which may result in a top-line ￰26￱ Coinbase platform appears to be more popular among both retail and institutional investors, given the increase in trading volume compared to FQ2 2025 to the same quarter last year, and with continued provision of high-quality services, the cryptocurrency exchange positions itself well to sustain its leading position in the years ￰27￱ Appears To Be Elevated, But Tailwinds Could Drive Multiples Further Coinbase trades at a roughly 41x earnings multiple, which appears to be about 3.6x higher than the industry's average of 11x, and nearly 60% above the average of the S&P500 of approximately ￰28￱ is elevated, but Coin operates in the high-growth cryptocurrency landscape — for instance, the total cryptocurrency market cap is currently valued at about $3.89 trillion , implying a 75% increase over the past 365 days, from $2.21 trillion on September 23, 2024.

COIN: Forward P/E (YCharts) The forward P/E chart above indicates that the current valuation is also at the higher end for the stock, but given seasonality tailwinds and significant cryptocurrency market growth, I think multiple expansion is ￰29￱ a PEG (TTM) basis of 0.34, versus the sector median of 0.63, the company actually appears to be undervalued, which supports my bullish ￰30￱ forward EV/Sales and Price/Sales at 10.76 and 11.15, respectively, balance the positive narrative and indicate Coinbase is trading at a premium compared to the industry's average of 3.07 and ￰31￱ may also suggest that the market is expecting continued revenue growth and that it may already be partially reflected in valuations.

COIN: Revenue (TTM) (YCharts) Regardless, the company increased its revenue by 49.18% over the past 12 months, indicating 6.6x outperformance compared to the sector median of 7.41%, and justifying premium ￰32￱ average company in the benchmark grows its top-line by 10% annually; therefore, such outperformance implies that Coinbase deserves a higher premium, and I think there is still room for multiple ￰33￱ company grew EBITDA by 93% year-over-year, indicating 7x outperformance versus peers' average of about 13%. Its EBIT increased by 105% over the past 12 months, signaling 9x outperformance compared to the sector median of only 11%. This is significant and justifies elevated ￰34￱ is not only a top-line growth story; its recent bottom-line increase was ￰35￱ cryptocurrency exchange grew its diluted EPS by about 90% over the past 12 months, 7x higher than its peers of roughly 12%.

This fuels the bullish narrative, and if high double-digit growth continues, the company may be repriced at substantially higher ￰36￱ company is a low-leverage business, with total obligations of around $ 4.70 ￰37￱ has $7.54 billion in cash; thus, it could pay the debt with ￰38￱ is another tailwind for the company, as financial flexibility leaves a lot of room for management. coIN: Capital Structure (Seeking Alpha) Coinbase operates at significantly above-market ￰39￱ gross profit margin (TTM) of 84.53% , roughly 40% higher than peers of 60.21%, justifies a higher ￰40￱ net income margin (TTM) of around 43% appears to be nearly 84% higher than the industry's average of approximately 23%.

The company delivered a significant 28% return on common equity (TTM), indicating roughly 2.6x outperformance compared to the sector median of 11%. COIN generated $1.81 billion in cash from operations (TTM), 10x higher than its peers of only about $181 ￰41￱ on profitability metrics, Coinbase is an exceptional business, which deserves to be trading at a premium compared to the broader market. coIN: Net Income (TTM) (YCharts) Overall, Coinbase is growing both its top and bottom ￰42￱ company operates in the cryptocurrency landscape, which attracts more capital every year, and experiences a rise in ￰43￱ appears to be a compelling long-term play for investors who favor crypto exposure via the equity market, offering a financial technology aspect and business model operating at significantly above-market ￰44￱ the dominant stance, I think Coinbase is well-positioned to benefit from an increased demand for crypto ￰45￱ offers a high-quality platform and different services in one application, which is a user-friendly approach, leading to a sticky customer ￰46￱ into account seasonality tailwinds, it presents an interesting opportunity to ￰47￱ market forecasts for $8.04 FY2026 ￰48￱ though I believe COIN should focus on continued revenue growth, targeting new customers, and expanding its customer base, I think analysts' estimated bottom line is a rational forecast.

coIN: EPS Estimates (Seeking Alpha) If expected bottom-line growth materializes and management executes well, applying a 48x earnings multiple, we come in at around my price target of $385. The multiple would be about 2x higher than the average company in the S&P500, but given significant top and bottom line growth, tied to increasing demand in the crypto landscape and compelling all-in-one application, I think it would be ￰49￱ seasonality tailwind plays out, my price target could appear conservative, as Coinbase may achieve results significantly above their provided ￰50￱ Risks And Concerns There are risks and concerns tied to Coinbase, which could affect the stock price in the near ￰51￱ though the cryptocurrency landscape appears to be seasonal, it is not guaranteed for a bullish ￰52￱ the last 3 months end up worse than anticipated, sentiment may shift, and crypto-related names could face a significant ￰53￱ revenue is highly dependent on ￰54￱ the cryptocurrency landscape, or broader market in general, enters a bear market, COIN may correct significantly, given its leading stance in the ￰55￱ company also trades at a premium; therefore, the stock may be repriced at closer-to-market ￰56￱ are risks tied to the regulatory ￰57￱ though it's being formed, an actual cryptocurrency legal framework is tied to a lot of uncertainties, and it differs in different ￰58￱ new legal acts are established, which would not be pro-crypto, sentiment may shift, and the stock may take a hit.

coIN's top line is also dependent on its subscription and services ￰59￱ company benefits from a high-interest-rate environment, as it allows it to generate more revenue from ￰60￱ there is a sharp decline in the US interest rates, it could materially hurt their top-line. Moreover, if new legislation were to negatively impact staking, it could also negatively affect the company's ￰61￱ none of the above materializes, and crypto experiences seasonality tailwinds, Coinbase is well-positioned to benefit from the growth, which may result in multiple expansions. I think COIN appears to be an appealing long-term investment for investors who favor crypto exposure via an equity name.

Conclusion: Coinbase Is A Leader, Shaping The Crypto Landscape, With Growth Tailwinds Ahead I think Coinbase is an interesting opportunity, presenting a compelling mixture of crypto and financial technology ￰62￱ company is a leader in the industry, which is growing top and bottom lines, and operates at significantly above-market margins. Yes, the company trades at a premium, but it deserves ￰63￱ the seasonality tailwinds, I think there is more room for multiple ￰64￱ current US administration is pro-crypto, which is a major tailwind for the company and the whole cryptocurrency ￰65￱ offers a user-friendly approach with an all-in-one application, which may lead to a continued customer base ￰66￱ this with a bullish year-end, and Coinbase appears to be well-positioned to benefit if seasonality materializes.

I think Coinbase is a Buy, with a $385 price target over the next 12 ￰67￱ implies about 17% upside and broader market outperformance. 33 Wall Street analysts project a $370 price target over the next 12 months, suggesting 14% upside. I agree with analysts, but time will tell if the price target will be achieved.