Bullish: A Closer Look At Earnings

Summary Bullish has seen volatile trading since its IPO, with shares down over 50% from their initial spike. BLSH's revenue is heavily reliant on crypto holdings, with transaction income declining and CoinDesk services showing growth but still limited overall scale.

The company is not yet profitable; Q2 profit is entirely due to crypto asset appreciation, masking underlying operational losses. I rate BLSH as a 'hold' due to weak earnings growth, inconsistent transaction volumes, and the need for a clearer technical and financial trend.

Bullish ( BLSH ) IPO'd on 13th August and has already given holders a wild ride, first spiking to $118 and now trading more than 50% lower at $51. This isn't necessarily a reflection of value, and many IPOs have followed a similar pattern only to stabilize and build a sustained trend higher.

For instance, Meta Platforms ( META ) dropped more than 60% after its IPO over the course of 16 weeks but then made a solid bottom and never looked back. One of the challenges in trading after an IPO is the limited information, not just on the company's financials and valuation, but also on technical aspects such as where support could be.

The low so far is $47. 88, but if that is exceeded, there is no reference level on the downside.

What is evident from the information we have is that BLSH has limited revenues and must grow to merit its market cap of $7. 5B.

This article takes a look at the company's earnings and why they are not as bullish as the name suggests. Income Streams BLSH has a variety of income streams.

These can be broken down into 3 areas: 1. Exchange (spread) fees.

2. CoinDesk services.

3. Appreciation of crypto holdings.

IPO Document 1. The Exchange BLSH has impressive figures for the volumes on its crypto exchange.

IPO Document Unfortunately, volumes have been on the slide this year. Q2 may have been OK, but June was low, and subsequent months were even lower.

Bullish Volumes fluctuate with macro factors, and it's worth noting Coinbase ( COIN ) also had a bad Q2, with transaction revenues falling 2% year-over-year and a significant 39% from Q1. August saw only 48.

8B total trading volume for BLSH but had a much larger average trading spread, which may balance it out somewhat. Volume and the spread size are often linked, but we saw relatively steady volumes in Q1 between 82.

5 and 85. 7B, and the spread varied from 1.

47 to 1. 90 bps.

BLSH may need to hold this constant as much as they can to keep institutional clients happy. BLSH will report Q2 earnings on Wednesday, its first earnings report since the IPO.

The company has already provided preliminary estimated ranges, which show an improvement in "digital asset sales" compared to the same period in 2024. IPO Document But what are "digital asset sales," and why are they "derecognized?

" The IPO document explains : The difference between the digital assets sales and cost of digital assets derecognized was the net gain from digital assets sales arising from trading spread. In other words, this is the profit the company makes from transactions.

That came to a rather measly $15. 5M from the spread.

This is down from the $22M made in the same quarter in 2024 despite the higher sales numbers. It is also down from the $26M posted in Q1 when trading volumes were high.

IPO Document Here are the full-year numbers for 2024, 2023, and 2022. IPO Document The full-year revenue for transactions in 2024 was $96M.

It may come in less this year based on the $41M estimated for Q1 and Q2. 2.

CoinDesk CoinDesk contains custom crypto indices available on the exchange and operates subscription-based services. Bullish The revenue is reported under "other revenues.

" In Q1, there was $20. 3M from this income stream, a huge rise from the same quarter last year.

IPO Document The high-end estimate for Q2 is $32M, so this area is growing strongly and provides around double the revenue as transactions do. Still, the two revenue streams combined are around $47M, which is light for a company valued at $7.

5B. 3.

Crypto Holdings BLSH holds around 24,000 Bitcoins and other crypto, which is reported in different segments. IPO Document The changes in the fair value of these digital assets are reported on the balance sheet and often overshadow all the other revenues.

In 2023, the change was a huge +$1. 3B.

In Q1 of this year, there was a loss of $319M, but that has turned around in Q2, as the company reports: For the three months ended June 30, 2025, we expect change in fair value of digital assets held, net to be in the range of $68. 5 million and $68.

3 million, as compared to $(99. 4) million for the three months ended June 30, 2024, driven primarily by mark-to market adjustments.

At the moment, the value of their crypto holdings is around $3B, which makes up nearly half of the market cap of $7. 5B.

Crypto holdings are often given a premium, so you could say the rest of the company is valued at around $3-4B, which doesn't seem too expensive. As a comparison, COIN has a market cap of $83B, but it also has Q2 revenue of $1.

5B compared to the estimated $48M for BLSH. It's worth noting BLSH does have non-IFRS financial measures and adjusted revenue figures of $57M, but I am basing my calculations on the full information provided on financial statements.

IPO Document Putting It All Together BLSH has around $15-26M in quarterly revenues from transactions. This has failed to grow and dropped quite significantly in Q2.

It also has around $32M revenue from CoinDesk, which has grown healthily in recent quarters. Put these together, and BLSH is not yet making a profit.

The estimated Q2 profit of $109M is entirely due to the crypto holdings rising in value by $155M. In other words, BLSH is due to make a loss of around $46M if it were not for its crypto holdings.

The crypto holdings are valued at $3B, giving the rest of the company a valuation of $4. 5B.

That could be justified if earnings were growing, but the lack of growth in transactions is a worry, as are the large swings in volume and lack of consistency. I rate BLSH a "hold" at the moment.

I'd need to see better earnings growth and a better chart pattern (with a reversal and clear support) to consider buying.