Boom Then Bust? BTC Eyes $175K Before Catastrophic 80% Drop

TL;DR Bitcoin may climb to $175K before falling 70–80%, based on four past market cycles. $4.9T in expiring options today could bring sharp volatility across crypto and ￰0￱ head-and-shoulders pattern suggests a bounce from $112K could push BTC toward $130K. Bitcoin’s Past Cycles Show Repeated Deep Drops Bitcoin has seen major corrections after each bull market ￰1￱ reviewed by market analyst EGRAG CRYPTO shows that in 2011, the cryptocurrency fell around 93% from its ￰2￱ 2013, the drop was around 86%, followed by 84% in 2017, and roughly 77% in 2022 after the 2021 top. Notably, the average drawdown across these four cycles comes to around 85%. Based on this, EGRAG suggests a possible 70% to 80% decline in the next bear ￰3￱ is not guaranteed but is based on how Bitcoin has behaved over more than a decade of price ￰4￱ to EGRAG’s market model, BTC may still have room to move higher before any major correction ￰5￱ chart shared projects a possible peak at around $175,000.

This is once again based on price structures that have formed in previous cycles.) September 19, 2025 Technical Pattern Could Signal Short-Term Path Ali Martinez shared a chart that shows a potential inverse head-and-shoulders formation on Bitcoin’s 4-hour ￰6￱ left shoulder formed in late August, the head in early September, and the right shoulder may be developing ￰7￱ noted that Bitcoin might dip to around $112,000–$113,000 before ￰8￱ added that “a rally to $130,000” could follow if the price breaks above the $117,950 ￰9￱ resistance levels to watch in that case are $121,000, $125,000, and $127,000.