Bitcoin’s Risk-Off Signal Weakens: Is the Market Finally Learning to Handle Volatility?

Although Bitcoin surged above $125,000 in the first week of October 2025, its six-year “Uptober” winning streak may still be at risk. Historically, October has delivered strong returns since 2013, with only two red years, 2014 and 2018, and uninterrupted gains from 2019 through 2024. However, with just hours left before the monthly close, the data suggests this one could break that ￰0￱ on-chain indicators warn that Bitcoin must soon reclaim the holders’ cost-basis zone to avoid renewed downside pressure and a potential extension of the current correction ￰1￱ Correction Fear Looms As per Bitcoin Vector, each time BTC revisits the $106,000-$108,000 range, the Risk-Off Signal weakens, showing that volatility shocks are being absorbed more effectively, a sign of a mature market.

Nevertheless, the firm warns that maintaining this stability depends on reclaiming the holders’ cost-basis zone in the near ￰2￱ that recovery, bearish pressure could build again, which could end up deepening the existing correction cycle. Meanwhile, Axel Adler ￰3￱ out that Bitcoin’s current stagnation stems from a wave of profit-taking by long-term holders (LTHs). Data shows this cohort of investors sold approximately 810,000 BTC since July 1, reducing their holdings from 15.5 million to 14.6 ￰4￱ still achieved two fresh all-time highs despite that selling pressure, as market demand remained ￰5￱ added that if LTHs persist in offloading coins, Bitcoin’s price growth could remain limited, keeping the market’s bullish potential under constraint for the foreseeable ￰6￱ a related development, CryptoQuant also found that long-term Bitcoin whales, veteran investors who have weathered multiple market cycles, have realized one of their largest profits of 2025, worth around $271 ￰7￱ is the third major profit spike of the ￰8￱ events often lead to sharp price movements as liquidity adapts to whale ￰9￱ believe that whales may be either anticipating short-term downside or rebalancing their ￰10￱ next key signal lies with short-term holders – if they absorb these profits, consolidation may follow, and if selling accelerates, a broader market cooldown could emerge. $123,000 Target If Bulls Hold the Line In a statement to CryptoPotato , Arthur Azizov, Founder and Investor at B2 Ventures, said Bitcoin is currently trading within a defined range after moving sideways since July ￰11￱ asset recently bounced off the lower boundary of this range, in what appeared to be a potential start of a ￰12￱ broader market conditions remain favorable, Azizov expects Bitcoin to move toward $123,000 and possibly retest its all-time high before the end of the year.

However, if Bitcoin slips below the crucial $100,000 level and consolidates there, it could extend its decline to the $96,000-$93,000 ￰13￱ founder added that $100,000 remains a psychologically important threshold and a strong support area, much like in June 2025 when Bitcoin rebounded from similar ￰14￱ went on to add, “Looking at the most recent upward wave, which began in April 2025, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level lies around $91,000. Interestingly, that level also aligns with a weekly imbalance zone, which makes it a potentially powerful reversal area if the price ever reaches ￰15￱ said, I don’t believe Bitcoin will fall that low – there are simply too many factors supporting the asset right now, preventing such a deep pullback.”