Bitcoin: Uptober Arrived, And My New Target Price Too!

Summary Reiterate a buy rating on Bitcoin, citing renewed perspectives with new ￰0￱ on-chain metrics studied also seem like a great combination to take Bitcoin to a new ￰1￱ modest September gains, BTC is decoupling from traditional assets, offering portfolio diversification and risk management ￰2￱ a $138,000 target price for BTC by the end of 2025, supported by strong seasonality and expanding institutional participation, while noting risks from large holder ￰3￱ Thesis I reiterate my buy recommendation on Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ). This article is a continuation of my initial coverage article published on November 29, 2024, and my last article about the thesis was published on July 10, ￰4￱ month of September is over, and we will analyze events and perspectives for the ￰5￱ analysis of on-chain metrics shows that there is a clear combination of factors that can bring even higher Bitcoin ￰6￱ Is The Best Way To Buy Bitcoin?

Before starting data analysis, I intend to answer a frequent question in the comments: What is the best way to buy bitcoin? The answer depends on the investor's ￰7￱ investor who chooses to perform self-custody (through a decentralized wallet) has ample control of his wallet, but must be aware of the ￰8￱ this model, the investor must organize to keep their wallet secure, this includes keeping the seed phrase and mitigating any theft or equipment ￰9￱ if you are not an organized investor to maintain a seed phrase in security, or feel insecure of this modality, you should choose to invest through an ￰10￱ I will describe the main ￰11￱ Ticker AUM Sponsor Fee iShares Bitcoin Trust IBIT $87 billion 0.25% Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund FBTC $21 billion 0.25% Grayscale Bitcoin Trust GBTC $20 billion 1.50% Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust BTC $5 billion 0.15% ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF ARKB $4 billion 0.21% Bitwise Bitcoin ETF BITB $4 billion 0.20% VanEck Bitcoin Trust HODL $2 billion 0.20% Franklin Bitcoin ETF EZBC $0.6 billion 0.19% Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF BTCO $0.6 billion 0.25% If you want economy and don't care about less liquidity, you can choose Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust.

However, the iShares Bitcoin Trust has the best cost benefit when we analyze liquidity and sponsor fees, in my ￰12￱ Bitcoin rose 2.70% between September 1 and September 30, but despite the modest gains, the events were ￰13￱ top 100 public Bitcoin treasury companies held more than 1 million ￰14￱ a reference, the same companies had 416 thousand bitcoins the previous year. Additionaly, a survey conducted at the end of August by BofA with Fund Managers shows that 75% have no exposure to cryptocurrencies, meaning there is a lot of space for institutional adoption and valuation of ￰15￱ of FMS investors are not structurally allocated to crypto (BofA) The fact is that, in general, topics such as favorable regulatory winds, institutional adoption, and changes in sentiment have already been widely ￰16￱ we need to analyze what the next catalysts will ￰17￱ Strategies In Bitcoin ETFs One of the new catalysts, in my opinion, will be the launch of new strategies with ￰18￱ new regulations are simplified, we will soon have products with Covered Call, Systematic Call Writing, Synthetic Covered Call among many ￰19￱ an example, BlackRock registered its iShares Bitcoin Premium ETF , a covered bitcoin strategy for yield ￰20￱ may attract new institutional and retail investors, generating greater demand that will drive the price higher, and this could extend to other ￰21￱ a reference, the SEC has postponed a decision on the launch of seven ETFs until ￰22￱ other examples, CBOE plans to launch continuous Bitcoin and Ethereum, starting on November 10th.

On-Chain Metrics Other data that makes me optimistic are the on-chain metrics. Let’s look first at the Exchange Whale ￰23￱ indicator shows the largest inflows to exchanges in relation to the ￰24￱ course, a high value may indicate selling ￰25￱ Exchange Whale Ratio – All Exchanges (CryptoQuant) As we can see, the current 0.35 levels suggest an optimistic scenario, as whales are not dominating inflows to ￰26￱ is another prospective sign that makes me optimistic about the ￰27￱ other on-chain metrics, we can analyze the Active Addresses ￰28￱ chart is below, and it is curious to note that the levels are at the same point as in ￰29￱ suggests that we are not in a euphoric market, which is positive in my view.

BTC: Number of Active Addresses (Glassnode) Finally, the above feeling is again corroborated by the implied volatility of Bitcoin's ￰30￱ graph below combines the Bitcoin Deribit Volatility Index and implied volatility itself, and the result is that the market expects low ￰31￱ DVol Index Vol of Vol (Deribit (Deribit Insights / Deribit Metrics)) In my opinion, this is the typical combination for a price ￰32￱ have low selling pressure (Whale Ratio), high activity network (Active Addresses) and a relatively complacent market, as we saw ￰33￱ market is silently accumulating for a breakout, and statistics are in favor of this hypothesis, as we will ￰34￱ Price In all my Bitcoin articles , I bring a metric to estimate a target price for Bitcoin, and it will be no different this time.

Now, let's estimate the target price through statistics, since October has been by far the best month for Bitcoin since ￰35￱ we can see below, we have an average return of 18.4% in the month and an 82% win ￰36￱ (Spider) By the time I write this article, Bitcoin is worth $116,777; therefore, the estimates indicate that the price could reach $138,000. Of course, past returns are not a guarantee of future returns, especially in the following month, but this will be my target for Bitcoin at the end of ￰37￱ on this analysis, I reiterate the recommendation to buy ￰38￱ citing the thesis risks, I want to point out that Bitcoin is losing correlation with other assets and ￰39￱ chart below shows the decoupling between the price of Bitcoin and global M2 ￰40￱ increasingly drives adoption by the institutional public, in my opinion, as the asset can finally be used in a risk management context for ￰41￱ Price vs Global M2 Liquidity (Bloomberg) Potential Threats To The Thesis Still on the theme of decoupling, we will make a Bitcoin comparison with ￰42￱ we can see in the chart below, Bitcoin prices have decoupled from gold, and at other times, this has meant the beginning of large drops in the price of ￰43￱ and Digital Gold (Bloomberg) Another very sensitive data point concerns investment ￰44￱ we can see in the chart below, September showed the largest settlements of long positions of the ￰45￱ Liquidation Chart (Coinglass) More intriguing is that when we expand our analysis, we see that September showed the largest sell-off among large holders since 2022.

Therefore, despite the pillars, it is interesting that investors evaluate the risks of the thesis, especially regarding flow. Bitcoin: Total Balance and Balance Change of Large Holders (1K-10K balance) (CryptoQuant Provisional) The Bottom Line Bitcoin ended September with a modest high; however, there are several signs that the investment thesis is ￰46￱ is a Bitcoin ETFs market taking more and more structured products. Additionally, the combination of low pressure, high network activity, and a market expecting little volatility can be the perfect combination for a new ￰47￱ on this analysis, I reiterate my recommendation to buy ￰48￱ suggest a target price of $138,000 at the end of 2025, and this represents an excellent return given the increasingly significant buyer flow.