Bitcoin has entered a critical phase, with the price falling from the $110,000 region to below $100,000 in under 48 0 sharp decline reflects mounting fear across the market as aggressive selling pressure forces short-term holders to 1 began as a controlled retracement has quickly evolved into panic-driven behavior, with traders rushing to exit risk 2 volatility spikes and sentiment deteriorates, market participants are closely monitoring key support levels to assess whether Bitcoin can stabilize or whether a deeper downside is still 3 to top on-chain analyst Axel Adler, loss-making transactions among short-term holders are surging during this 4 7-day Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) currently sits at 0.9904, indicating that most coins moved by newer holders are being sold at a 5 sustained breakdown below the critical parity level (1.0) signals that reactive market participants are offloading positions under stress, reinforcing the narrative of fear and liquidation-driven 6 this surge in realized losses highlights panic behavior, it also historically occurs near cycle stress points where weaker hands exit the 7 coming days will determine whether this capitulation pressure exhausts sellers — or whether further losses still lie ahead.
Short-Term Holder Stress Rising, But Not at Capitulation Levels Yet Axel Adler highlights that although Bitcoin is under meaningful sell pressure, current on-chain stress has not yet reached full 8 STH-SOPR Z-score sits at −1.29, signaling growing loss realization among short-term 9 negative reading confirms mounting sell-side momentum, yet Adler notes that the stress level is still moderate compared to previous major 10 context, during the heavy correction in August 2024, the STH-SOPR dropped to 0.9752 with a Z-score of −2.43 — a reading consistent with deep 11 comparison, today’s metrics reflect pain and fear, but not a full exhaustion of 12 important distinction suggests the market may still be in the middle phase of its correction rather than at its terminal 13 also shows a steady climb in loss-making activity over recent weeks, illustrating a sustained shift in sentiment as traders unwind 14 the SOPR momentarily flipped above parity to 1.0005 at the end of October — hinting at attempted recovery — renewed selling in early November quickly invalidated that momentum.
Still, metrics have not yet revisited previous 15 essence, the market remains under pressure, but the classic wash-out signal of complete capitulation has not fully triggered — leaving room for either further downside, or a potential stabilization should buyers reclaim 16 Action Analysis: Testing Deep Support After Sharp Breakdown Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize after a sharp breakdown that sent the price below the psychological $100,000 17 daily chart shows a notable acceleration in selling momentum, with multiple long-bodied bearish candles forming on rising volume — a clear sign of aggressive 18 losing the $110,000 region last week, buyers failed to defend the cluster of support around the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, resulting in a swift move down toward deeper 19 briefly dipped under $99,000 before reclaiming the area, suggesting initial buyer interest near these lower supports.
However, the recovery so far lacks strength, with candles closing weak and the 50-day and 200-day moving averages now sloping downward above price — a structurally bearish alignment for the short 20 prior key demand zone around $105,000–$107,000 has flipped into resistance, and Bitcoin must reclaim this range to shift 21 now, BTC trades in a vulnerable posture, and failure to build support above $100,000 could expose the next liquidity pocket toward $96,000–$98,000. Still, the sharp volume spike at the lows may indicate early accumulation attempts. A sustained bounce requires buyers to step in decisively and defend current levels as the market tests conviction under 22 image from ChatGPT, chart from 23
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