Bitcoin Price Analysis: Path to New ATH Opens Up if BTC Reclaims This Key Level

Bitcoin has been consolidating within a well-defined range, bounded by its 100 and 200-day moving ￰0￱ asset has staged a mild recovery toward the upper boundary, signaling early signs of renewed ￰1￱ extended consolidation in this region remains likely, a valid breakout could trigger a sustained directional ￰2￱ Analysis By Shayan The Daily Chart On the daily timeframe, BTC remains confined within a crucial range, with the 200-day MA near $109K providing solid support and the 100-day MA around $115K acting as immediate ￰3￱ recent rebound from the $108K demand zone has pushed the price back toward the upper boundary of this ￰4￱ recovery candles show a constructive tone, but the $115K–$116K region, which overlaps with an institutional supply zone (DP), represents the first key test for bullish continuation.

A decisive close above this level could open the path for a retest of the $120K–$122K liquidity pocket, followed by a potential revisit of the $126K all-time high. Conversely, rejection from the 100-day MA would likely prompt a pullback toward the $108K accumulation zone, which continues to serve as a high-liquidity demand base and the foundation of recent ￰5￱ 4-Hour Chart The 4-hour structure highlights Bitcoin trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern, following a sharp recovery from the $102K–$104K institutional demand ￰6￱ pattern reflects a period of volatility compression, typically preceding a strong breakout. Currently, the asset is attempting to break above the upper trendline, which would confirm a bullish momentum shift and target the $120K–$122K liquidity zone.

However, failure to sustain above resistance and the formation of another lower high could invite renewed downside toward the $108K support for a potential base ￰7￱ remains constructive but fragile, suggesting the market is entering a critical decision phase where volatility expansion is imminent. On-chain Analysis By Shayan The Realized Price of mid-term holders (3–6 month cohort) continues to act as a key market pivot, historically serving as both support and resistance during major turning ￰8￱ metric reflects the average acquisition cost of coins held by this group, offering valuable insight into prevailing sentiment. Bitcoin’s rebound from $102K has lifted price action just above the $109K Realized Price, putting mid-term holders back into slight ￰9￱ development typically reduces short-term selling pressure and signals improving conviction among market ￰10￱ $114K region now emerges as a decisive threshold.

A confirmed breakout and hold above this level would reinforce confidence among these holders, potentially igniting a new bullish leg toward fresh all-time highs. Conversely, failure to hold above it could tilt sentiment back toward caution, exposing Bitcoin to deeper corrective moves within its current range.