Bitcoin LTH Aging Velocity Turns Negative: Distribution Phase Unfolds

Bitcoin is once again at a pivotal level, with selling pressure dominating the market and volatility shaking investor ￰0￱ weeks of choppy trading, BTC is barely holding above the $110,000 mark, a threshold that many analysts view as critical for maintaining a bullish ￰1￱ has clearly shifted in recent sessions, and the market is now bracing for the possibility of a deeper ￰2￱ Reading: Old Bitcoin Supply Unlocks: 7,626 BTC Aged 3–5 Years Moves Onchain Adding to the concern, top analyst Axel Adler shared insights from the Bitcoin UTXO Age Metrics, which reveal growing signs of distribution from long-term holders. Historically, when older coins begin to move, it often signals that experienced investors are taking profits and releasing supply back into the ￰3￱ behavior has repeatedly preceded periods of downside pressure, as the influx of long-held BTC creates hurdles for bulls to ￰4￱ Bitcoin has shown resilience throughout this cycle, the combination of distribution signals and mounting uncertainty makes the coming days ￰5￱ BTC fails to hold its current support, the door could open to lower levels, testing investor ￰6￱ spotlight is now on whether demand can match the renewed selling from long-term holders and stabilize the ￰7￱ LTH Aging Velocity Signal Market Shift According to Adler, the LTH Aging Velocity (30-day) offers valuable insight into the current Bitcoin market ￰8￱ metric measures the change in the long-term holder (LTH) supply share over a 30-day period, effectively showing the momentum of supply aging among experienced ￰9￱ the metric is above 0, more coins are maturing into long-term supply, indicating ￰10￱ it is below 0, the LTH share is decreasing, signaling ￰11￱ crossings often mark regime changes, and the last one occurred on July 16th at $118,000.

Currently, the metric sits at -1.2%, which means LTH supply is decreasing while the share of young short-term holder (STH) supply is ￰12￱ reflects an active redistribution, with long-term holders selling coins to newer participants as the price ￰13￱ highlights that the last LTH accumulation peak occurred when Bitcoin traded between $100,000–$108,000, a range that provided the foundation for the most recent ￰14￱ by historical patterns, another 2% of LTH supply could be distributed in the near term—equivalent to roughly 300,000 ￰15￱ suggests that while Bitcoin still holds strong above the $110,000 level, selling pressure from long-term holders remains an important ￰16￱ demand from ETFs and institutions does not keep pace, the market could face renewed downward pressure before ￰17￱ now, this shift in aging velocity underscores that the balance of power is tilting, with long-term holders gradually passing supply to new ￰18￱ Reading: Bitcoin Cycle Structure Questioned As VDD Mirrors Historic Tops Price Analysis: Consolidation Holds, Resistance Ahead Bitcoin’s 8-hour chart shows the price trading at $111,711, consolidating just above the $111K level after weeks of ￰19￱ chart highlights a recovery attempt from late August’s dip near $108K, but BTC has yet to reclaim stronger resistance ￰20￱ moving averages show mixed signals: the 50 SMA (blue) remains below the 100 SMA (green) and 200 SMA (red), indicating bearish momentum still dominates the ￰21￱ action is currently hovering between the 50 SMA at $111K and the 100 SMA at $114K, which forms an immediate resistance zone.

A decisive break above $114K could open the door to $118K, but failure to do so may result in another retest of $110K or even $108K. Related Reading: Binance Sees Massive Ethereum Whale Outflows: Demand Remains Strong Market structure remains choppy, with lower highs forming since the $124K peak in ￰22￱ suggests selling pressure persists as bulls struggle to regain ￰23￱ the downside, strong support lies near the $108K region, which has held multiple ￰24￱ this level would increase the risk of a deeper pullback toward $105K. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView