Bitcoin (BTC) Could Surge to $170K in Q4: Report

With the dawn of October, sentiments surrounding Bitcoin appear to be improving. Interestingly, Bitcoin’s historical price behavior continues to show patterns consistent with the so-called “four-year cycle,” according to analysis by The DeFi ￰0￱ platform revealed that it is confident that BTC will peak again in Q4. Four-Year Cycle Strikes Again Current-cycle data indicates the market is in a “late stage” of ￰1￱ DeFi Report measured from Bitcoin’s November 2022 price trough, and found that 1,044 days have elapsed, which is comparable to the 1,063-day 2021 expansion and the 1,065-day 2017 ￰2￱ profits for BTC investors have reached $857 billion, which is 65% higher than in the 2021 cycle, while normalized to market cap, profit creation aligns closely with previous cycles.

Meanwhile, Coin Days Destroyed, a measure of how long coins are held before spending, has already exceeded the 2021 cycle by 15%, which points to active profit-taking. Long-term holder supply too mirrored past behavior as a distribution phase occurred in Q4 2024 through Q1 2025, followed by a rebound, which means that coins moved into new money entering the ￰3￱ top that, the market has continued to experience institutional participation and market maturation as Bitcoin dominance has not yet fallen to the 40% levels seen in prior ￰4￱ Price & MVRV-Z Score Technical indicators further add context to these ￰5￱ 200-week moving average is currently sitting at $53.1k.

It has previously signaled bottoms and prior cycle highs, pointing to diminishing returns for upward moves this ￰6￱ price, a proxy for cost basis, sits at $53.8k, which also validated this ￰7￱ MVRV-Z score is 2.28, already above comparable points in ￰8￱ instances have shown that a move toward a score of 3 could correspond to Bitcoin reaching $160k-$170k. This means that the crypto asset has significant potential upside if the cycle ￰9￱ no law requires Bitcoin to follow the four-year cycle, the report stated that the convergence of behavioral, mechanical, and macroeconomic factors suggests a Q4 peak is ￰10￱ anchoring, liquidity alignment, halving mechanics, innovation bursts, and volatility expectations together support this scenario, which makes the four-year cycle a durable framework.