Betting On IBIT As Bitcoin Correction Nears Its End

Summary iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF is rated a 'Buy' for its ease of Bitcoin exposure, institutional backing, and portfolio benefits. IBIT's low 0.25% fee, rapid AUM growth, and strong institutional inflows highlight its competitive edge among Bitcoin ￰0￱ analysis suggests a near-term correction in BTC, presenting an ideal IBIT entry point around $55-56 for long-term ￰1￱ risks include high volatility and potential forced Bitcoin sales by indebted firms like MicroStrategy, but regulatory improvements support long-term ￰2￱ thesis I started working with Bitcoin, the main asset of the cryptocurrency market, back in ￰3￱ was an awkward attempt to trade this asset through Forex brokers, which gave me some new emotions related to the highest market volatility and price ￰4￱ main introduction to the “laws” of this industry, however, came in 2017, when I assumed the position of managing trader at a closed-end crypto ￰5￱ was a crazy time, because in the course of my work, not only did I experience Bitcoin's rise from $700 to $19,600, but also learned what a truly massive market crash was when this asset lost 84% of its maximum ￰6￱ experience was both rich in positive emotions and, at the same time, caused temporary ￰7￱ then, the whole thing seemed like an extraordinary adventure to me, because the main drawbacks of the cryptocurrency market, in my opinion, were not only the lack of regulation and excessive anonymity (I believe that big money will not go where you don't know the parties to the transaction) but also the lack of institutional ￰8￱ then, I realized that the real development of this industry would only begin with the emergence of derivative financial instruments and the launch of exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

After all, this would bring large institutional capital into the market, leading not only to a repeat of the global bullish trend, but also creating a more stable foundation against the losses I encountered in ￰9￱ recommendation to "Buy" iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF ( IBIT ) is based on my personal experience of owning Bitcoin in cryptocurrency exchange accounts and hardware wallets, and the work I have done since ￰10￱ spite of my thorough understanding of all aspects of the cryptocurrency market, I think that buying this asset, for even active investors like me, has the undeniable advantage of avoiding all the costs and inconveniences associated with buying/selling and storing BTC.

Besides, I like having an extra chance to diversify my portfolio, as owning Bitcoin managed by BlackRock is a pretty solid ￰11￱ of iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF and catalysts for its growth The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF is an exchange-traded fund whose investment strategy is based on working with Bitcoin. A strategic advantage of IBIT is that investors get the opportunity to invest in Bitcoin without the various inconveniences involved in the process, starting with the procedure for purchasing and storing the digital asset, to the tax and commission expenses associated with both the purchase and storage of the ￰12￱ the fact that this ETF was only created on January 5, 2024, it has assets under management of $80.28 billion.

Today, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust is the company's most profitable ETF, as the fund's annual revenue amounted to approximately $244 ￰13￱ fund outperformed BlackRock's 25-year-old funds, such as iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF and iShares MSCI EAFE ETF, in annual revenue growth, according to Bloomberg Intelligence Data. A hypothetical $10,000 investment in the fund since its inception would have grown to $21,294, which equates to a return of +112.95% (from January 5, 2024, to November 4, 2025). Growth of Hypothetical $10,000 The other advantage of IBIT is its low fee of 0.25%. That's the same as one of its main competitors , the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund ETF ( FBTC ), but less than the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF ( GBTC ) at 1.5%.

While exchange-traded funds such as ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF ( ARKB ) and Bitwise Bitcoin ETF ( BITB ) have lower fees of 0.21% and 0.2%, respectively, their AUMs are only $4.23 billion and $4.09 ￰14￱ Analysis of Major Bitcoin ETF Profiles Yet another catalyst for IBIT growth is the influx of capital from institutional investors, who are increasingly becoming holders of this ￰15￱ can be explained by the results of improvements in the regulatory framework governing the crypto industry and the digital currency ￰16￱ summer's much-discussed GENIUS Act is just one practical example of how the US government is capable of creating a stable regulatory framework that helps boost the fundamental value of instruments such as ￰17￱ combined effect of legislative activity contributes to the increased legitimacy of cryptocurrency assets, accompanied by an influx of funds into ETFs investing in Bitcoin and other digital ￰18￱ on last year's data , IBIT was added to the investment portfolios of more than 1,387 institutional investors (whereas 333 institutional investors sold it), adding an extra $10.16 billion to the fund (whereas the outflow was $1.36 billion).

The main inflow of capital was in Q4 2024, when institutional investors invested $5.75 ￰19￱ Q3 2025, the inflow amounted to only $397 million, while outflows amounted to $119 ￰20￱ Institutional Buying and Selling by Quarter The top institutional investors in IBIT were Millennium Management LLC ($1.58 billion), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. ($1.44 billion), Brevan Howard Capital Management LP ($1.39 billion), Symmetry Investments LP ($672.61 million), Capula Management Ltd ($580.35 million), DE Shaw & Co. Inc. ($512.86 million), and Tudor Investment Corp ET AL ($426.98 million).

Technical analysis of Bitcoin and its impact on IBIT Since iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF is an exchange-traded fund with a high correlation to the price of Bitcoin, therefore, its investment attractiveness is influenced by market trends in the cryptocurrency ￰21￱ order to evaluate IBIT, we suggest looking at the Bitcoin chart. Let's first determine the global trend of BTC using technical analysis of the 1W time ￰22￱ Technical Analysis on the 1W Timeframe According to the weekly chart, we can see that a global upward trend channel has ￰23￱ the same time, the bullish trend did not begin on August 5, 2024 (minimum level $49,577), but in November 2022.

However, the trend channel that is relevant to me is the one that has formed over the past year. Bitcoin's key support level is the June 2025 low of $98,240. The importance of this horizontal line is due to the fact that this is where the lower boundary of the upward trend channel is located. I suppose that the price may reach this level after a liquidity raid, after which there will be a consolidation for 2-8 weeks, followed by a resumption of price ￰24￱ the chart with a 1D timeframe, the price of Bitcoin shows a medium-term downward ￰25￱ have a downward trend channel that started from the historical high.

Bitcoin's downside target is $98,240. When the price recovers, however, the medium-term downtrend creates additional resistance for ￰26￱ is the $116,035 ￰27￱ factors make it important. Firstly, it forms the extreme upper point that created the downward trend channel. Secondly, it is a level of protected liquidity, because earlier there was a liquidity raid, due to which a new wave of price decline ￰28￱ suggests to me that if the positive IBIT growth forecast proves accurate, we should pay particular attention to the period when the price of Bitcoin recovers to $116,035.

This increase may then be followed by a phase of downward consolidation or a renewed wave of medium-term ￰29￱ Technical Analysis on the 1D Timeframe Considering this situation based on technical analysis of the Bitcoin chart, I am expecting the downward correction phase to end after the BTC-USD price falls to $98,240. As a percentage, this decline could be an additional 3-5%. Therefore, the current IBIT price may decline from $58 to $55-56, which will be an ideal level for ￰30￱ of the investment thesis In order to assess the risks of an investment idea, it's worth considering the factors that could cause a global downward trend in the Bitcoin ￰31￱ technical factors and irrational decisions by market participants, which can lead to a sell-off and margin calls for long positions, it is worth paying attention to the development of companies such as Strategy Inc.

( MSTR ). The organization, like its competitors (GameStop ( GME ), Bit Digital ( BTBT ), and Block ( XYZ )), works to purchase Bitcoin through the issuance of its securities. Earlier, this was done through additional share issues; however, convertible bonds are increasingly being used ￰32￱ a major player in this industry, MicroStrategy now owns more than 600,000 ￰33￱ is nearly 3% of the total supply on the ￰34￱ latest data shows that its debt is $8.21 ￰35￱ instance, at the start of 2024, this debt was $2.24 billion, down 72.7%. Due to this, MSTR's Levered FCF Margin (TTM) is -123.29%.

When compared to the sector median of 11.13%, these are disastrous figures, demonstrating the company's potential problems with its debt and future ￰36￱ long ago, GameStop conducted a large issue of convertible bonds ( worth $1.3 billion ). These examples demonstrate the risks associated with a possible sell-off of Bitcoin should such organizations encounter financial difficulties caused by debt ￰37￱ such a case, such events could trigger large-scale Bitcoin sales, causing IBIT's returns to suffer significantly. Also, it is worth considering the risk that IBIT, as well as similar exchange-traded funds linked to cryptocurrency assets, has a high standard ￰38￱ of today, the indicator stands at 48.4%, which is much higher than the median for all ETFs, which have a standard deviation of 12.45%.

Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to the risks that could lead to a significant decline in the cryptocurrency market, resulting in a drop in the price of ￰39￱ of a downward trend in the long term (on the weekly chart) will be a challenge for investments in IBIT, due to which the idea of buying them will have to be ￰40￱ In summary, the results of my fundamental analysis of IBIT allow me to evaluate this ETF as a stock that can be added to a balanced investment ￰41￱ primary reasons for the "Buy" recommendation include the expectation of Bitcoin's recovery after the completion of the downward correction and the competitive advantages of BlackRock's exchange-traded fund, which takes advantage of this asset's unique position due to its limited supply of 21 million coins.

Additionally, I expect a recovery in the inflow of institutional investor funds, which would be a long-term effect of improvements in the regulatory framework for the crypto industry in the US and G7 and G20 countries.